We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (OCT P) due at 00:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 48.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-24
  • Heads up: Japan’s Nikkei Japan PMI Manufacturing (OCT P) is due at 0:30 GMT (15 min) Est: N/A Previous: 48.9 #JPY
  • - Swedish Krona, Norwegian Krone eye Riksbank and Norges Bank rate moves - Pair may suffer if central banks strike a worrying tone and outlook for growth - #ECB rate decision, commentary and #Brexit may also amplify Nordic volatility ⬇️ https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/10/24/Euro-NOK-SEK-Brace-for-Riksbank-ECB-and-Norges-Bank-Rate-Moves-.html
  • #BITCOIN pivot points (daily) – S3: 6165.06, S2: 6872.64, S1: 7148.71, R1: 7856.29, R2: 8287.8, R3: 8995.38- https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • RT @JeffSnider_AIP: How's it going in repo? ICYMI, the Fed announced today a big increase in O/N caps to $125bln, and term operations upc…
  • (Asia Pacific AM Briefing) Yen May Gain After Tesla Earnings Beat as USD/CAD Eyes 2019 Low #Yen #Tesla $USDCAD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2019/10/23/Yen-May-Fall-After-Tesla-Earnings-Beat-as-USDCAD-Eyes-2019-Low.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/W2LpaYFUCA
  • $GBPUSD: A close above 1.3048 could resume bullish price action towards the vicinity of 1.3293-1.3300. Get your GBP/USD technical analysis from @malkudsi here:https://t.co/n1SMgMehvt https://t.co/PZWc8XeyVG
  • [Corr] South Korea GDP Y/Y came in at 2.0%, unchanged from the previous period while on a Q/Q basis it showed a weaker growth print at 0.4%, missing the 0.5% est.
  • The ECB rate decision is a top fundamental event risk later today. It is unlikely that they add on top of September's flood, but path of least resistance is sticking to range and retail traders are heavy bears: https://t.co/GCyvs6nYth
  • South Korea Q3 GDP shows 0.4% growth print Q/Q, missing 0.3% estimate - BBG #USDKRW
USD Price Outlook: More Gains Possible Ahead of Fed Meeting

USD Price Outlook: More Gains Possible Ahead of Fed Meeting

2019-07-09 11:00:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
Share:

USD price, news and analysis:

  • Bullish factors are beginning to build up for USD.
  • They include a growing belief that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut US rates by a quarter of a percentage point rather than by half a point this month.

USD Price Outlook Bullish

The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is now looking likely to cut US interest rates by 25 basis points rather than 50bps when it meets on July 30-31, and that is likely to keep the US Dollar on its upward trajectory near-term.

Market pricing is currently suggesting a 97.5% probability that the FOMC will reduce its target range to 2.0%-2.25% from the current 2.25%-2.50%. The chances of a reduction to 1.75%-2.0% are therefore a mere 2.5%, with almost nobody expecting the Fed to leave its target rate unchanged.

The impact can bee see on the EURUSD chart below, which shows the pair in a steep downward channel.

EURUSD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (January 15 – July 9, 2019)

Latest EURUSD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Other factors supporting the USD are a relaunch of the US-China trade talks this week and news last week of a higher than expected increase in US non-farm payrolls in June, suggesting that the US economy is performing better than feared.

However, there is a wild card: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will this week give his semi-annual testimony to Congress, appearing before a House panel Wednesday and a Senate committee Thursday. Clearly, if his testimony is more dovish than expected, talk of a 50bps cut in rates will grow and the USD would likely ease back in response.

Resources to help you trade the forex markets:

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you:

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.