News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • What are some technical and fundamental factors affecting the equities market? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/YQG1aaIT8C #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/oOyN7fUaC6
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes may drag on the price of gold as the central bank appears to be in no rush to switch gears. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/2EvNplObIk https://t.co/hhEAnqhAEu
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/gNiVpWrd1p
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/4zEwS7mFJE
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/nB2f5m56nq
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/Q0yRRpMpPX
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/pSeSiNnmHe
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDe1Ksp https://t.co/iVOEuK40rn
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/SQUCCYRCIk https://t.co/ltEO5dpKux
  • WTI crude oil is currently trading up against major resistance via the 2019 and 2020 highs within the confines of a channel; something has to give. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/MO9foRjm2y https://t.co/YhBFdvZDEb
USD Rises on Firm NFP Report, 50bps Fed Rate Cut Bets Plunge

USD Rises on Firm NFP Report, 50bps Fed Rate Cut Bets Plunge

Justin McQueen, Analyst

NFP Analysis and Talking Points

  • US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 224k in June, beating expectations of 160k expected; Prior month revised Lower
  • US Average Hourly Earnings fell short of consensus
  • Markets Pullback on Bets of a 50bps Federal Reserve Rate Cut at the July Meeting

See our latest Q3 FX forecast to learn what will drive the currency through the quarter.

DATA RECAP

US NFP 224k vs. Exp. 160k (Prev. 75k, Rev. 72k)

Unemployment Rate 3.7% Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%)

Average Earnings M/M 0.2% Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)

Average Earnings Y/Y 3.1% Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.1%)

NFP Report Review

US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported total nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment expanded by a 224k jobs in June, beating expectations of 160k. Alongside this, the headline figure for the prior month saw a downward revision to 72k from 75k, while the unemployment rate had ticked up to 3.7%, although this had been due to the rise in the participation rate.

Wage Growth Eases

The Fed focussed wage data rose missed analyst estimates with the monthly reading showing a 0.2% rise vs Exp. 0.3%, which kept the yearly rate at 3.1%. Overall, the report was relatively robust, which in turn has seen Fed rate cut bets price out the likelihood of a 50bps rate cut at the July meeting, however, continues to fully price in a 25bps rate cut.

Market Response

The robust jobs reports saw a firmer US Dollar across the board, while US Treasury yields also edged higher with the 10yr yield breaking above 2%. Consequently, gold prices have pushed lower with the precious metal making a break below $1400 as markets scale back on bets of a 50bps Fed rate cut.

USD Price Chart: 1-minute time frame (Intra-day)

USD Rises on Firm NFP Report, 50bps Fed Rate Cut Bets Plunge

Chart by IG

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES