News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇨🇦 Average Weekly Earnings YoY (JUL) Actual: 8.7% Previous: 9.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-24
  • 🇺🇸 Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (19/SEP) Actual: 878.25K Previous: 912K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-24
  • 🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (19/SEP) Actual: 870K Expected: 840K Previous: 866K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-24
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.87%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 65.26%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/GJlp9s6T5J
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.31% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.13% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.37% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.44% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/uSIzMa8oqD
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (19/SEP) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 912K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-24
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims (19/SEP) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 840K Previous: 860K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-24
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Continuing Jobless Claims (12/SEP) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 12300K Previous: 12628K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-24
  • Heads Up:🇨🇦 Average Weekly Earnings YoY (JUL) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 9.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-24
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/yy0NBFGmGR
USD Rises on Firm NFP Report, 50bps Fed Rate Cut Bets Plunge

USD Rises on Firm NFP Report, 50bps Fed Rate Cut Bets Plunge

2019-07-05 12:50:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

NFP Analysis and Talking Points

  • US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 224k in June, beating expectations of 160k expected; Prior month revised Lower
  • US Average Hourly Earnings fell short of consensus
  • Markets Pullback on Bets of a 50bps Federal Reserve Rate Cut at the July Meeting

See our latest Q3 FX forecast to learn what will drive the currency through the quarter.

DATA RECAP

US NFP 224k vs. Exp. 160k (Prev. 75k, Rev. 72k)

Unemployment Rate 3.7% Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 3.6%)

Average Earnings M/M 0.2% Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)

Average Earnings Y/Y 3.1% Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 3.1%)

NFP Report Review

US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported total nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment expanded by a 224k jobs in June, beating expectations of 160k. Alongside this, the headline figure for the prior month saw a downward revision to 72k from 75k, while the unemployment rate had ticked up to 3.7%, although this had been due to the rise in the participation rate.

Wage Growth Eases

The Fed focussed wage data rose missed analyst estimates with the monthly reading showing a 0.2% rise vs Exp. 0.3%, which kept the yearly rate at 3.1%. Overall, the report was relatively robust, which in turn has seen Fed rate cut bets price out the likelihood of a 50bps rate cut at the July meeting, however, continues to fully price in a 25bps rate cut.

Market Response

The robust jobs reports saw a firmer US Dollar across the board, while US Treasury yields also edged higher with the 10yr yield breaking above 2%. Consequently, gold prices have pushed lower with the precious metal making a break below $1400 as markets scale back on bets of a 50bps Fed rate cut.

USD Price Chart: 1-minute time frame (Intra-day)

USD Rises on Firm NFP Report, 50bps Fed Rate Cut Bets Plunge

Chart by IG

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES