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Crude Oil Price - Trump Fuelled Rally Running into Resistance

Crude Oil Price - Trump Fuelled Rally Running into Resistance

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist
What's on this page

Crude Oil Price, Chart and Analysis:

  • US President Trump pulls back from conflict with Iran for now.
  • Oil rally nears technical resistance.

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Crude Oil Rallies on Heightened US-Iran Brinksmanship

US President Trump ordered strikes against a few targets in Iran Thursday before rescinding the order, according to a range of sources. The strikes, in retaliation for the shooting down of a US drone, would have put the two countries on the brink of war, with both leaders taking an increasingly belligerent stance. According to the New York Times, quoting an unnamed senior administration official,"Planes were in the air and ships were in position, but no missiles had been fired when word came to stand down."

Oil took this news as another opportunity to jump higher as tension in the Gulf increases. Earlier in the week, oil rallied hard on the back of news reports that Iran had shot down a US drone, with Iran saying the drone was in its official airspace while the US said the drone was hit in international airspace. In retalitaion to recent action, Iran warned that that while it had no intention of going to war, 'we are completely ready for war'.

In addition, oil also received a boost this week on news that the US and China had agreed to trade talks next week, easing tensions between world’s two largest economies.

Crude Oil Price Building a Base, US Intentions Remain the Key Driver

Brent crude, currently trading at $64.52/bbl. now nears two levels of technical resistance that may slow further upside in the short-term. The 200-day moving average currently sits at $65.10/bbl. just ahead of 50% Fibonacci retracement at $65.60/bbl. The CCI indictor also points to the market being over-bought. To the downside, there are a cluster of recent highs between $63.70/bbl. and $62.28/bbl. that may slow down any sell-off.

How to Trade Crude Oil: Trading Tips and Strategies

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – June 21, 2019)

IG Client Sentiment data show how traders are positioned in a wide variety of asset classes and how daily and weekly shifts can affect market sentiment.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on crude oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.