News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • Copper is on track to make a sixth consecutive monthly gain as prices inch towards its all-time high. The global backdrop remains supportive despite a short-term pause in the rally. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
  • Retail trader signals still hint that the Dow Jones and S&P 500 may be at risk, placing the focus on year-long rising trendlines to see if dominant upside biases hold.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The path for the Japanese Yen seems to favor the downside looking at a majors-based index. USD/JPY may rise within its Ascending Channel, but there is some scope for a healthy correction. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The British Pound’s recent slip lower against its major counterparts may prove short-lived. Key levels to watch for GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF and EUR/GBP. Get your $GBP market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • Senate Democrats reach deal on jobless aid -BBG
  • The US Dollar faces its next key tests against ASEAN FX following gains in USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/PHP and USD/THB. Are the breakouts losing momentum? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 National People's Congress due at 00:00 GMT (15min)
  • Positive vaccine progress, fiscal stimulus hopes and an unperturbed Federal Reserve may open the door for long-term Treasury yields to continue pressing higher, and in turn weigh on gold prices. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.07% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.24% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.36% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.41% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.50% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.54% View the performance of all markets via
Australian Dollar Wilts As RBA Minutes Say More Rate Cuts Likely

Australian Dollar Wilts As RBA Minutes Say More Rate Cuts Likely

David Cottle, Analyst

Australian Dollar, Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Minutes, Talking Points:

  • The RBA said further interest rate reductions were more likely than not
  • Its meeting minutes seemed more dovish than the statement released immediately aftger rates were cut this month
  • AUD/USD was hammered

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page.

The Australian Dollar fell Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia appeared to make an unsually explicit signal of yet-lower interest rates ahead.

The minutes of June 4’s Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting found rate-setters saying that further monetary easing was more likely than not to be appropriate in the months ahead.

They recognized that rates were not the only way to boost activity, which was perhaps yet another veiled plea to the Australian government to stop relying on monetary policy and dial up stimulus from the fiscal side.

The meeting produced the first cut in the Official Cash Rate since August 2016 and took that key rate down to a new record low of 1.25%. Back then what was seen as quite a measured statement from the central bank actually saw the Australian Dollar gain.

It is now firmly back on the defensive as the scale of policy dovishness at the RBA becomes apparent, banishing any thoughts of a ‘one and done’ rate cut. AUD/USD duly lost ground.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, Daily Chart

Rate futures markets price-in a very high probability of more reductions soon in any case, and did well before Tuesday’s release.

Another quarter-point cut is built-in to the interbank cash futures curve by September, with further falls also expected next year. Given the country’s enormous levels of private debt, deep cuts may well be less likely than the market now thinks. However, the Australian Dollar clearly lacks any semblance of monetary policy support. Moreover, while domestic consumer price inflation remains below the RBA’s 2-3% target band, it can’t hope for any.

AUD/USD has been in a steady downtrend since the start of 2018. That downtrend has accelerated since May, taking the pair back below 2019’s early lows.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, Daily Chart

Much near-term direction may well depend on the tone struck by the US Federal Reserve when it announces its own policy settings on Wednesday. The Australian Dollar might also make some upward headway if there are any signs of trade settlement between the US and China, unlikely though that seems at present.

However this total lack of interest rate support seems likely to define the overall direction of this market now and probably for at least the rest of 2019.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.