Gold Price Outlook Positive, Silver Price Continues to Struggle
Gold Price/Silver Price, Analysis and Charts.
- Gold has turned lower, buffeted by a strong US dollar
- Silver unable to convincingly break the 200-day moving average.
Gold Slips Ahead of FOMC Rate Talk
Gold has been unable to hold its recent 14-month high and is drifting back towards minor support around $1335/oz. after a Friday rebound in the US dollar. The greenback remains the primary driver for gold and this Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will be closely followed for any further talk on the timing of US interest rate cuts. The Fed is fully expected to indicate a 0.25% rate cut at the July meeting, and if this expectation is missed, the US dollar may rally further, weighing on the price of gold.
DailyFX senior currency strategist John Kicklighter will be running Live Coverage of the FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday from 17.45 GMT.
The daily gold chart shows that all three moving remain bullish, while the precious metal has also moved out of overbought territory, after its recent extreme levels. The gap on the June candle has proved supportive for now and gold is likely to make a fresh attempt at the April 11, 2018 high at $1,365/oz. if Fed Chair Powell talks rate cuts on Wednesday.
Gold (XAU) Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – June 17, 2019)
IG Client Sentimentshows that retail traders are 57.5% net-long gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. Recent daily and weekly sentiment shifts however give us a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias.
Silver Struggles with the 200-Day Moving Average
Silver’s recent break above $15.00 did not for long as the 200-day moving average, currently around $15.05, continues to act as strong resistance to a move higher. Silver has broken above the longer-dated moving average three times in the last two weeks but has been unable to close above the 200-dma. While this remains the case, silver will struggle to press higher.
Silver Daily Price Chart (September 2018 – June 17, 2019)
The gold/silver ratio continues its long-term move higher and is currently just over 90, a level last seen in March 1993.
--- Written by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.