News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Copper Price Eyes 2020 High as China Data Indicates Robust Recovery #XCUUSD $CPER https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/10/01/Copper-Price-Eyes-2020-High-as-China-Data-Indicates-Robust-Recovery.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/77zvHBLsFC
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.25% Gold: 0.18% Oil - US Crude: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/8Q2vaiaiCJ
  • A falling crude oil stockpile is underpinning crude oil prices. Crude inventory fell 1.98 million barrels last week, more than a 1.57 million forecast, according to EIA reports. WTI Crude oil price advanced more than 3% overnight. https://t.co/b1MEzEagen
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/YgTLOf10s7
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.21% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.19% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.12% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.11% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/qL7nMxUXEP
  • #Market Snapshot Risk-on tilt to kick-off a fresh quarter of trade Haven-associated $USD and $JPY losing ground while $AUDUSD and $EURUSD trek higher #SP500 futures following #CrudeOil and the #ASX200 higher $Gold dipping back towards session-lows https://t.co/oJemFdRsdt
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.17%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 65.50%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/X3E4khU9qC
  • American Airlines say it is planning to furlough 19,000 employees after the government fails to pass its delayed fiscal stimulus follow up. United warned previously it could furlough 12,000 of its employees and Disney laid off 28,000 of its workers. #pandemic
  • GBP/USD was putting together a strong rally yesterday, but fizzled and put price closing in the bottom half of its daily range. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/34HxGeksHU https://t.co/qMxdumej4w
  • The Tokyo Stock Exchange said before the opening bell on Thursday that it would suspend trading in all stocks, due to a glitch in its system to distribute market information - https://t.co/CNsaUCWgBa
NZDUSD, AUDUSD Tumble to Support. RBNZ, RBA Rate Cut Bets Deepen

NZDUSD, AUDUSD Tumble to Support. RBNZ, RBA Rate Cut Bets Deepen

2019-06-14 03:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

AUDUSD, NZD/USD, RBA, RBNZ Talking Points

  • Australian and New Zealand Dollars sinking with dovish RBA, RBNZ bets
  • Anti-risk Japanese Yen is rising, likely due to an unwinding of carry trade
  • NZDUSD fall could extend, perhaps reaching 0.6425 after clearing support

Trade all the major global economic data live as it populates in the economic calendar and follow the live coverage for key events listed in theDailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

The pro-risk Australian and New Zealand Dollars are aiming lower in morning Friday trade as the anti-risk Japanese Yen gains. At first glance, this appears to be a case of general risk aversion, but stocks are aiming cautiously higher looking at APAC equities. Furthermore, S&P 500 futures are pointing to the upside heading into European and US trading hours.

NZD’s decline with local front-end government bond yields was initiated by dismal New Zealand Manufacturing PMI below. Growth clocked in at a snail’s pace, just 50.2 in May versus 53.0 prior. That was the softest pace of expansion since December 2012 and follows a steady slowdown since the beginning of this year. This underscored action taken by the RBNZ to cut rates back in May as inflation slowed.

Hours later, both the AUD and NZD extended losses as the National Australia Bank (NAB) and Royal Bank of Canada in Sydney envisioned the RBA cutting rates further in the near-term. The former sees rates at 0.75% by November. The latter sees them at 0.5% by May 2020. Overnight index swaps are now pricing in a greater than 60% chance of a cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia next month.

Gains in the Japanese Yen might have had more to do with an unwinding of carry positions due to increasingly dovish shift in monetary policy expectations, rather than a selloff in stocks. In fact, earlier in the day, results in US government bond auctions indicated strong demand for haven assets as yields fell, perhaps amid rising fears of a recession. This is undermining the appeal of the relatively high-yielding AUD and NZD. Meanwhile, the US Dollar could benefit the most if a premium is placed on liquidity.

NZDUSD, AUDUSD, Australian Bond Yields 15-Minute Chart

NZDUSD, AUDUSD Tumble to Support. RBNZ, RBA Rate Cut Bets Deepen

Chart Created by Dimitri Zabelin

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

Taking a closer at NZDUSD, the pair has been resuming the dominant downtrend that took it from a peak of 0.6940 back in March, to lows set in May above 0.6482. If the appeal of the pro-risk AUD and NZD continues to deteriorate, Kiwi Dollar may be very well looking to not only breach current 2019 lows, but also then extend declines to eventually testing 0.6425.

NZDUSD Daily Chart

NZDUSD, AUDUSD Tumble to Support. RBNZ, RBA Rate Cut Bets Deepen

Chart Created in TradingView

New Zealand Dollar Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES