News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/gGOU1RVQzq
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/wrI29FTN41
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/UzzC1bGzRJ
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/46bdHdOmOV
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here: https://t.co/8G8mUX4so6 https://t.co/6FokpDbL65
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/TwrOBFgIwj
  • Gold prices were crushed this week as yields continued to climb. But with a big spot of support coming in, can buyers bring a bounce ahead of NFP? Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/E1TTXVJGUm https://t.co/pD4TeAY3ZP
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/PiLYJDVvtY
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/453MLny2lu
  • The haven-linked US Dollar may be in a position to benefit in the short-run as economic recovery bets support longer-dated Treasury yields, making them more competitive with stocks. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/BickxlcuZi https://t.co/OdARp4Z1mh
Brazilian Real, Ibovespa Index Forecast: Major Breakout Ahead?

Brazilian Real, Ibovespa Index Forecast: Major Breakout Ahead?

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

TALKING POINTS – USDBRL FORECAST, IBOVESPA CHART ANALYSIS, PENSION REFORMS, FED MONETARY POLICY

  • USDBRL is cautiously hovering around key support at 3.85040
  • Ibovespa index re-enters critical resistance range – will it hold?
  • Local retail sales data could introduce additionality volatility

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

USDBRL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

In May, USDBRL reached an 8-month high after blasting through the psychological barrier at 4.0000. However, it has since lost over six percent and is now hovering around key support at 3.8504. This followed USDBRL’s break below the January rising support channel (parallel red lines), a serious deviation from the 6-month uptrend.

USDBRL – Daily Chart

Chart Showing USDBRL

The rapidity of USDBRL’s decline – relative to how long it took for the pair to get there – after reaching past 4.0000 is telling. It could be a signal that traders don’t believe that such a high exchange rate is justified given shifts in the fundamental outlook which may be supportive of strength in BRL. These include increased expectations that the Fed will cut rates along with cautious optimism that Brazilian pension reforms will pass.

USDBRL Plunges Amid Broad US Dollar Weakness

Chart Showing USDBRL

IBOVESPA OUTLOOK

The benchmark Ibovespa equity index on June 11 closed at 98960, the highest since March. It also penetrated the lower lip of the 98588.63-100438.87 range (turquoise dotted lines). Despite the significant break, traders may wait for follow-through before committing capital. The next barrier will be the upper range, though touching the 100,000 mark will likely be an inter-range obstacle investors will have to overcome.

If the break is met with follow-through, the index may trade within the price parameters before capitulating or breaking higher. The direction of the index at this critical juncture will either signal that investors are confident in the country’s trajectory – enough so to commit capital – or they believe that the outlook is too bleak to risk gaining or increasing their exposure to it.

IBOVESPA – Daily Chart

Chart Showing Ibovespa

BRAZIL RETAIL SALES DATA

Local retail sales data may have a conflicting impact on BRL and Ibovespa because of how it may influence the Brazilian central bank’s monetary policy. A weak reading could increase rate cut expectations from Banco do Brasil, and the prospect of a weaker Real would likely push USDBRL higher while boosting local equities from the prospect of cheaper credit.

However, it is worth noting that a single data point will not alleviate the anxiety investors have over Brazil’s growth trajectory. Monetary authorities have already trimmed GDP forecasts for the year and the uncertainty over global growth and local pension reforms will likely continue to be the dominant themes driving price action in local markets.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES