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EURUSD Price Outlook: Still Looking to Fall Further

EURUSD Price Outlook: Still Looking to Fall Further

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


What's on this page

EURUSD Price, Chart and Analysis:

  • EURUSD set to test recent one-year low.
  • EURUSD technical set-up remains negative.

Q2 2019 EUR Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities

With little in the way of important Euro-Zone data this week, the EUR may well test the recent one-year low against the US dollar at just above 1.1100 and print yet another lower low. On the other side of the pair, the greenback is looking at some high-profile releases over the next couple of days and any better-than-expected prints may force EURUSD lower. Yesterday’s US consumer confidence release beat expectations with ease – 134.1 vs 130.0 exp and 129.2 prior - boosting the USD back towards its two-year peak.

Keep up to date with all key economic data and event releases via the DailyFX Economic Calendar

The US dollar remains firm despite US Treasury yields falling to lows not seen since September 2017. Lower government bond yields normally weaken the currency, however the USD continues to attract a safe-haven bid as risk appetite continues to wane. The 10-year UST currently yields 2.236%, down from 3.23% in September 2018.

The EURUSD chart remains bearish with an unbroken pattern of lower highs prominent since the start of January this year. The pair are now trading under all three moving averages, a bearish set-up, and a re-test of the recent 1.1107 low print remains likely. The CCI indictor shows the pair nearing oversold territory but it should be noted that EURUSD has been heavily oversold on five occasions this year, and twice very heavily. To the upside, the pair may struggle to break through congestion between 1.1176 and1.1216.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (August 2018 - May 29, 2019)

Retail traders are 58.8% net-long EURUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger contrarian bearish bias.

We run several Trader Sentiment Webinars every week explaining how to use IG client sentiment data and positioning when looking at a trade set-up. Access the DailyFX Webinar Calendar to get all the times and links for a wide range of webinars.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.