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GBP Analysis and Talking Points

  • Theresa May Announces Departure Date
  • New Leader Expected by End of July

See the DailyFX Q2 FX forecast to learn what will drive the currency throughout the quarter.

Theresa May Announces Resignation

Theresa May has announced that she will resign on June 7th but will remain in office until a new Tory leader is found, which will begin the following week and is expected to be concluded by end of July.


The initial reaction saw the Pound jump above 1.2700 against the USD, before quickly retracing back to pre-announced levels. While in the following 5-minutes, the Pound is heading lower.

Most likely Next Conservative Leader, according to UK bookmakers

  • Boris Johnson (6/4)
  • Dominic Raab (6/1)
  • David Lidington (8/1)
  • Andrea Leadsom (10/1)
  • Jeremy Hunt (11/1)
  • Michael Gove (12/1)
  • Sajid Javid (22/1)

How Does a Conservative Party Leadership Work?

The election takes place in two stages. In the first stage, Conservative MPs put their own names forward. MPs will then vote in several rounds to carve down the amount of candidates. In each round, the candidate with the fewest votes will be removed, which continues until there is two left.

In the second stage, the party membership is ballotted on which of the two candidates they prefer.

GBP Bears Beware: Boris as UK Prime Minister Might be Good for Sterling

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

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