We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 #tradingstyle https://t.co/0Wn4xBL0AY
  • Do you know which type of stock is the right investment for you? Stock types help investors decide on specific #stocks to trade or assist with valuation methods either fundamentally or technically. Learn more about stock types here: https://t.co/yO3JalkqUU https://t.co/RoNdExHAdt
  • The status of the US #dollar as the safe-haven asset of choice remains untouched and any weakness in the greenback is likely to be short-lived. Get your $USD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/LO2u38jpUT https://t.co/ctgCJSOeTH
  • #FTSE 100 testing key support as the index lacks a directional bias. #DAX reverses off channel top. Get your indices technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/IHF2dgMfg9 https://t.co/2fMTFlOeTR
  • With knowledge of price action, traders can perform a wide range of technical analysis functions without the necessity of any indicators, including management of risk. Build on you knowledge of price action here: https://t.co/9hQA0bsYtt https://t.co/5KQowxuiBf
  • The term ‘Ichimoku,’ literally means ‘one glance,’ in Japanese. Ichimoku, or the one glance indicator, is considered to be a self-contained system in the fact that no additional indicators are necessary. Learn more about the 'one glance' indicator here: https://t.co/T7o7W9C0Ro https://t.co/7bhBfWvEkR
  • Support and resistance are the cornerstone of technical analysis, making it the foundation that you build your knowledge on. Build a stronger foundation here: https://t.co/yXLaRpl90I https://t.co/85JHunf2Xf
  • Many traders ask how a trading method that is 77 years old is applicable today. Learn about the Gartley pattern and see how you can incorporate it into your trading style here: https://t.co/2yPmGH0XvT https://t.co/rtqUKZSdn1
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/ywv7RVP9qY
  • Crude oil prices may rise on supply-disruption fears after the outcome of the Iran election, but sentiment from #coronavirus fears may derail Brent’s recovery ahead of the G20 summit. Get your crude #oil market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/83iTphwaWv #OOTT https://t.co/RgQku64XyW
AUDUSD Rate at Risk Ahead of Aussie Jobs Data, RBA Cut Bets

AUDUSD Rate at Risk Ahead of Aussie Jobs Data, RBA Cut Bets

2019-05-15 22:37:00
Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst
Share:

AUDUSD CURRENCY VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS

  • AUDUSD overnight implied volatility explodes to 12.25 percent
  • Australia employment data expected Thursday is in focus
  • Aussie jobs report will likely move odds that the RBA will cut interest rates

The Australian Dollar has recorded a steady decline since mid-April which intensified after US President Trump’s tariff tweets sent currency volatility surging. Spot AUDUSD now trades near the 0.6926 mark – its lowest level since the Yen flash crash on January 2. Fears over escalating trade tensions negatively impacted risk assets as uncertainty surrounding slowing global growth quickly resurfaced.

RBA INTEREST RATE CUT PROBABILITY PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (JANUARY 01, 2019 TO MAY 15, 2019)

RBA Interest Rate Cut Odds Price Chart AUDUSD

Since the last RBA meeting minutes were released, the odds that Australia’s central bank will lower its policy interest rate by 0.25 percent has climbed steadily. In fact, the probability that the RBA cuts its Overnight Cash Rate at its meeting on June 4 has jumped to 37.5 percent ahead of tomorrow's job data.

With the RBA noting that a rate cut would likely be warranted if “inflation did not move any higher and unemployment trended up,” markets are now placing extra emphasis on Thursday’s job report due for release at 1:30 GMT. Bloomberg’s median consensus lists an expectation of 15K job additions with the unemployment rate holding steady at 5.0 percent.

AUDUSD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 21, 2018 TO MAY 15, 2019)

AUDUSD Price Chart

According to overnight implied volatility of 12.25 percent, currency traders might anticipate spot AUDUSD to trade between 0.6881 and 0.6969 with a 68 percent statistical probability. With spot prices beneath the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level shown above and sharp bearish downtrend serving as near-side technical resistance, upside in AUDUSD could be limited.

Although, a stellar jobs report tomorrow could crush the market’s rate cut expectations and shoot AUDUSD towards the 0.7000 handle. Conversely, a disappointing reading on Australia’s labor market has potential to send the Aussie plunging towards the 76.4 Fibonacci retracement level.

- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

- Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.