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Gold Price Outlook: Key Resistance Limits Rise, Risk Aversion May Spark Breakout

Gold Price Outlook: Key Resistance Limits Rise, Risk Aversion May Spark Breakout

2019-05-10 10:30:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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Gold Price Analysis and Talking Points:

  • Gold Prices Set to Report Weekly Gain on Risk Aversion
  • Gold Technical Analysis | Key Resistance Caps Gains

See our quarterly gold forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q2!

Gold Prices Set to Report Weekly Gain on Risk Aversion

Gold prices are on course to post a weekly gain (+0.4%) as rising trade war tensions between the US and China spur safe-haven flows into the precious metal. Overnight, the US delivered on its pledge to hike raise tariffs to 25% (Prev. 10%) on $200bln worth of Chinese goods, which in turn has seen China also retaliate (details have yet to be announced). However, this is unlikely to be a deal breaker (full story) with the base case remaining that the US and China will eventually reach a trade deal, albeit the uncertainty has been heightened, thus safe-haven flows should keep gold underpinned.

Gold Technical Analysis | Key Resistance Caps Gains

Throughout the week, gold prices have failed make a close above key resistance at $1287 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), as such, further upside has been curbed, which in turn has kept the precious metal somewhat rangebound. In turn, given the heightened uncertainty regarding trade wars an escalation may indeed spur a breakout, providing a close above the 61.8% fib takes place, which raises the likelihood of a move towards the descending trendline from the 2019 peak. On the downside, the double bottom resides at $1266, while the 50% fib is situated at $1263. Gold remains support as risk sentiment deteriorates, risks are tilted to the upside.

Focus on US CPI

Aside from trade wars, eyes will be on the US inflation report, in which expectations are for a pick up in both the headline and core rates. However, given the downside surprise in the PPI report, there is a chance that today’s CPI figures also miss, which would also provide a slight lift to the precious metal.

GOLD PRICE CHART: Daily Time-Frame (Mar 2018-April 2019)

Gold Price Outlook: Key Resistance Limits Rise, Risk Aversion May Spark Breakout

What You Need to Know About the Gold Market

GOLD TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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