News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The longer-term EUR/USD outlook will hinge on Thursday’s ECB guidance; any hint of a further easing of Eurozone monetary policy would weaken it, but that is far from guaranteed. Get your #currencies update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/RmHCfIwdqp https://t.co/hvETa6mtft
  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true. Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here:https://t.co/A4dqGMPylo https://t.co/M8WTvZgx2K
  • The Australian Dollar was under selling pressure this past week, but it held its ground. Bearish patterns brew in AUD/USD and AUD/JPY. Will EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD try to break higher again? Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/04kzJSqgNG https://t.co/ulPk1UneMM
  • Stocks are set to endure a string of data releases with market-moving potential in the week ahead in the form of tech earnings, European GDP and more, even as the US Presidential election clamors for the spotlight. #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here https://t.co/R6tpEvfXJb https://t.co/7koHTyh2AK
  • As we round our way towards a new week, Cable is within the confines of a bullish structure with beginnings back in September. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/NIbRTVmjqq https://t.co/zYma4Iq4dP
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here: https://t.co/UGhbX6kn3H https://t.co/NE2RB1NT55
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/MVwUUltt6R
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/38gTDn8ejP https://t.co/XnQzHlFsAv
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/FuLPdCLpKs
  • Elections anticipation may sabotage trend development next week, but that won't curb volatility between stimulus talks, Covid cases, FAANG earnings and 3Q GDP updates. Top of my watch list this week will be $EURUSD. My video on it all: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/10/24/EURUSD-a-Top-Volatility-Risk-This-Week-but-Election-Anxiety-May-Keep-Markets-From-Trends.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/t14eT2SMa7
Japanese Yen Winning the Safe Haven Battle vs USD and Gold

Japanese Yen Winning the Safe Haven Battle vs USD and Gold

2019-05-09 09:30:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

Japanese Yen Analysis and Talking Points:

  • Safe-Haven Flows Dominate Amid Rising Trade War Tensions
  • Large Speculative JPY Shorts at Risk

See our quarterly JPY forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q2!

Safe-Haven Flows Dominate Amid Rising Trade War Tensions

This week have seen investors move into safer assets with equity markets coming under notable selling pressure following President Trump’s pledge to raise the tariff rate to 25% from 10% on $200bln worth of Chinese goods. Consequently, this has seen China state that they will retaliate, thus bringing back trade war concerns to the forefront of investors minds as a deal in the near term has been put in doubt.

In reaction to the dampened sentiment, the notable beneficiary has been the Japanese Yen, rising 0.9% against the USD since Sunday, while gold has been the next best asset, gaining 0.3% with the USD the laggard having shown a marginal 0.15% increase.

Japanese Yen Winning the Safe Haven Battle vs USD and Gold

Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters

Large Speculative JPY Shorts at Risk

As had been highlighted in the weekly COT report (full story), speculators had been notably short the Japanese Yen with gross shorts outweighing gross longs by 5.8:1, which in turn saw net shorts equating to $11bln. As a reminder, previous crowded shorts in the JPY had soon been followed by notable short covering, sparking a flash crash in JPY pairs (full story). With this in mind, the dampened risk sentiment suggests that risks are to the upside for the JPY, which is now trading at a 3-month high against the USD index after USDJPY dipped below 109.70 (Mar 25th low).

USDJPY PRICE CHART: Daily Time-Frame (Sep 2018-May 2019)

Japanese Yen Winning the Safe Haven Battle vs USD and Gold

Source: IG Charts

JPY, GOLD TECH TARGETS

USDJPY: The pair briefly printed a 3-month low, now hovering around 109.70, eyes will be on for a close below 109.66, which could exacerbate losses for a move towards the 109.00 handle, while wider support is seen at 108.50. On the topside, resistance is situated at 110.00, in which a break above may ease some of the bearish momentum. For trade war barometer look to AUDJPY, which trades at the lowest level since early January, support situated at 76.00-20.

GOLD: Despite breaking above the resistance at $1287, gold prices failed to make a close above which in turn keeps the tight weekly range intact. Given the softer sentiment eyes will be on for another push higher in which a firm break above exposes a move towards the descending trendline from the 2019 peak.

What You Need to Know About the Gold Market

JPY TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES