We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Crude oil prices may rise on supply-disruption fears after the outcome of the Iran election, but sentiment from #coronavirus fears may derail Brent’s recovery ahead of the G20 summit. Get your crude #oil market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/83iTphwaWv #OOTT https://t.co/RgQku64XyW
  • The Australian Dollar remains severely weighed down by #coronavirus worries and a lack of domestic data points will probably keep that story in the driving seat. Get you $AUDUSD market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/qswUnnXVwR https://t.co/NyZ0iEpILm
  • While Sino-US trade jitters are temporarily abating, China-Swedish trade tensions are rising as a part of a political contagion of growing economic hostilities between nations across the world. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/F1fVoyzoz5 https://t.co/uOLKRebXB1
  • #DidYouKnow the global trade volumes dropped by close to 10% amid the Great Recession. Want to know your #tradewars history? Get it here: https://t.co/f4loFVzX6w https://t.co/GDTFHvUIf7
  • The spread of #coronavirus promises a global economic hit at a time when the global economy is perhaps especially ill-equipped to deal with one. Growth-correlated assets are vulnerable. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/0If0Jw7c2P https://t.co/mph6z70XeF
  • The $JPY continues to struggle against the US Dollar but there seems little appetite to push USD/JPY much beyond a range which has tended to reassert itself since late last year. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/iaVfPSuXy4 https://t.co/1QPhJmYlQv
  • The #Euro may bounce after hitting the lowest level in close to three years against the US Dollar. While the broader trend points firmly lower, selling pressure may be ebbing. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/697SQ9j5FY https://t.co/6SEvwQyod8
  • GBP/CAD has broken below the September uptrend while EUR/CAD may be ending its consecutive 12 day decline with EUR/CHF approaching key resistance as NZD/CAD aims at November lows. Get your currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/GpRB7IKhTA https://t.co/hlHlGdhkHc
  • The $GBP recoiled from chart resistance against the US Dollar, setting the stage for prices to resume a bearish trend reversal triggered mid-January. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/lVpyZkIfJt https://t.co/9oXusxs0Kg
  • The #Euro may have more room to fall versus its major peers such as the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and British Pound. What is the technical picture of EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/M6fLA9g3BK https://t.co/HMwQgr1WP5
Gold Price Outlook: Strength to Persist if US-China Trade Talks Fail

Gold Price Outlook: Strength to Persist if US-China Trade Talks Fail

2019-05-08 09:15:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor

Gold price, news and analysis:

  • The gold price has been strengthening this week on concerns about the US-China trade talks that resume in Washington tomorrow.
  • Other safe havens like US Treasuries and the Japanese Yen have benefited too but it is not clear that a potential “no deal” has yet been priced in.

Gold price rally may extend higher

The prices of gold and other safe-haven assets like US Treasuries and the Japanese Yen are benefiting as traders switch out of riskier assets such as stocks amid pessimism about the US-China trade talks due to take place in Washington on Thursday and Friday.

However, it is likely that the markets have yet to price in fully the real prospect that the talks break down without an agreement – and that could mean further gains for gold and other havens.

Gold Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (May 3-8, 2019)

Latest gold price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Click here for our second-quarter forecasts for gold and other assets

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will travel to Washington in an attempt to reach a trade agreement before higher tariffs on a range of Chinese goods are imposed by the US Friday – the new deadline set by President Donald Trump. However, Liu’s visit has been shortened to two days from three and risk aversion could yet increase further unless there are signs of progress in the talks.

Chinese trade surplus narrows

The talks will resume in the wake of data showing that China’s trade surplus fell to $13.84 billion in April – smaller than both the previous $32.67 billion and the predicted $34.56 billion. That arguably weakens the case for US tariffs on Chinese imports but there is still plenty of scope for a trade deal to unravel.

The DailyFX economic calendar is here

If it does, the gold price can be expected to hit the $1,300 per ounce level near-term and that advance could extend quickly to the $1,310.69 high touched on April 10 and potentially the $1,324.58 high reached on March 25. Meanwhile, to the downside, there is support at the $1,266.33 low recorded on May 2.

Note though, that there is currently no clear signal from IG Client Sentiment data. The latest figures show 74.1% of retail traders are net-long, with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.86 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.2% higher than yesterday and 5.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.3% higher than yesterday and 1.8% higher from last week.

At DailyFX, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests gold prices may fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed gold trading bias.

Latest gold trader positioning chart.

Source: DailyFX

More to read:

A brief history of trade wars

How to trade gold

Resources to help you trade the forex markets:

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you:

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.