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EURUSD Price Breaks Below 1.1300 on ECB Growth Concerns Rumor

EURUSD Price Breaks Below 1.1300 on ECB Growth Concerns Rumor

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


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EURUSD Price, Chart and ZEW Analysis, ECB Concerns:

  • EURUSD unmoved on ZEW data but dips on Reuters ECB growth forecast rumor.
  • Euro seemingly capped at current levels; client sentiment is bearish.

Q2 2019 EUR Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities

The latest German and Euro-Area ZEW data paints a mixed picture with sentiment pushing higher while the assessment of the economic situation in Germany deteriorates further.

According to ZEW President Achim Wambach, ‘The slight improvement recorded by the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is largely based on the hope that the global economic environment will develop less poorly than previously assumed. The postponement of the Brexit deadline may also have contributed to buoy the economic outlook. By contrast, the latest figures regarding incoming orders and industrial production in the German industry point to a rather weak economic development’.

The ZEW data had little impact of the single-currency which post-release fell suddenly on Reuters ‘sources’ headlines which said that several ECB members doubted projections of a growth rebound in H2 and some questioned the accuracy of the forecasting models. While still only a rumor, if growth projections are under question, as well as the modelling, the single currency may turn lower-for-longer and re-test recent lows.

EURUSD printed a low of 1.1279 straight after the rumor hit the screens and briefly broke below the 200-day ma. Support sits at 1.1216 before the 1.1176, the recent 22-month low.

Euro Fundamental Outlook: Will Data Support EURUSD Break?

EURUSD Four-Hour Price Chart (March – April 16, 2019)

Retail traders are 52.8% net-long EURUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish contrarian bias.

We run a number of Trader Sentiment webinars every week explaining how to use client sentiment data and positioning when looking at a trade set-up. Access the DailyFX Webinar Calendar to get all the times and links for a wide range of webinars and topics.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.