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EURUSD Price Nudges Higher; Trading Range Throttled

EURUSD Price Nudges Higher; Trading Range Throttled

Nick Cawley, Strategist

EURUSD Price, Chart and Analysis:

  • EURUSD crawls towards resistance around 1.1300.
  • Average trading range of just 45 pips.

Q2 2019 EUR Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities

EURUSD market volatility continues to remain at multi-month low levels, making the pair difficult to trade on a daily basis. The Average True Range – a 14-day moving average of the true ranges - is currently just 45 pips, down from 76 pips at the start of the year, making day-trading difficult at best. The overall chart set-up still points to lower prices – in line with the ECB’s lower-for-longer interest rates – with recent upticks in the pair caused more by US dollar weakness than EUR strength.

The ECB has already announced that it will launching another round of 2-year TLTROs later this year but, as yet, has not released any details. Yesterday, an ‘ECB sources’ story said that the central bank was considering offering loans to banks at zero or even negative interest rates to boost the borrowing bank’s balance sheet and help stoke growth in the Euro-Zone. According to the Reuters story, the central bank even discussed offering the new round of TLTROs at -0.4%, the ECB’s deposit rate.

TLTROs – The ECB’s Other Stimulus Tool.

EURUSD is nearing recent resistance around the 1.1300 area and may struggle to push appreciably higher. Above here, 1.1331 – the March 25 high – comes into play and with volatility at uber-low levels and the economy in a weak patch, EURUSD may struggle to move higher. Support at 1.1215 and 1.1176, the 22-month low.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (September 2018 – April 12, 2019)

EURUSD Price Nudges Higher; Trading Range Throttled

Retail traders are 62.9% net-long EURUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish contrarian bias.

We run a number of Trader Sentiment webinars every week explaining how to use client sentiment data and positioning when looking at a trade set-up. Access the DailyFX Webinar Calendar to get all the times and links for a wide range of webinars and topics.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.