We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis: 12-Month Aussie Downtrend Over? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/aud-usd/2019/12/12/AUDUSD-Technical-Analysis-12-Month-Aussie-Downtrend-Over.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #AUDUSD #technicalanalysis https://t.co/fxvA7uYRE9
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.02%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.40%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/6MgOWQ2l7e
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.15% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.11% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.05% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.01% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/FVLrHnzuZp
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.12% Wall Street: 0.08% France 40: 0.06% Germany 30: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/NcBgSwdQG8
  • The $AUD erased half of November’s down move in a mere two days but the dominant trend bias continues to favor weakness ahead. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/ShYksfwmHk https://t.co/My3kVT1YFQ
  • After a dismal week for the $USD, SGD, PHP, IDR and MYR turn their focus to the Federal Reserve. USD/PHP is also awaiting the BSP rate decision as USD/INR eyes Indian CPI data.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/hA2QjnL2kU https://t.co/KBYaDgRXVq
  • The US Dollar may extend declines against its ASEAN counterparts after the Fed rate decision. The Philippine Peso and Singapore Dollar are attempting key technical breakouts #USD #ASEAN $USDPHP $USDSGD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2019/12/12/USD-Price-at-Risk-as-PHP-and-SGD-Attempt-Key-Technical-Breakouts.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/hlQXyUI244
  • RT @scmpeconomy: China’s Central Economic Work Conference for 2020: 5 things you need to know #China #china #CEWC https://t.co/qj9rOIOGZk…
  • Overnight index swaps are pricing in about a 67.6% probability of a Fed rate cut at the 07/29/2020 meeting -BBG #USD
  • Commodities Update: As of 03:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.26% Oil - US Crude: 0.20% Gold: 0.05% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/J21ZFiuA4H
Forex Market Volatility: Currency Options Imply Muted Price Action Next Week

Forex Market Volatility: Currency Options Imply Muted Price Action Next Week

2019-04-05 21:20:00
Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst
Share:

FOREX MARKET IMPLIED VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS

Implied volatilities on 1-week forex options contracts have dipped resulting from tame expectations for price action next week. Yet, currency traders could see a volatility jolt in response to upcoming event risk. The Euro, US Dollar, and British Pound may see price action pick up next week, particularly in consideration of the April ECB meeting, March FOMC minutes and latest Brexit developments posing as catalysts with potential to stir volatility.

FOREX MARKET IMPLIED VOLATILITIES AND TRADING RANGES

Forex Market Implied Volatility for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHFCurrency Market Implied Volatility Price Chart for EUR, USD, GBP, NZD, AUD, CAD, CHF

A relatively quiet week for economic events and data releases have likely contributed to the breakdown in 1-week implied volatilities. However, Wednesday’s session appears chalk-full off potential risks that could spark volatility and has potential to bring about much-overdue price action.

The European Central Bank will likely dominate market themes for the Euro on Wednesday with the central bank providing its latest monetary policy update. Last month’s ECB meeting surprised market participants with its announcement to add a third round of TLTROs in addition to altering its interest rate guidance – an increasingly dovish position which sent EUR cratering. Since then, Eurozone economic data has deteriorated further as shown by the latest PMI readings and German factory orders. This could encourage ECB President Mario Draghi to further bolster market sentiment and the European economy with accommodative policy.

Searching for more information on the European economy and political landscape? Visit this article from DailyFX analyst Dimitri Zabelin here!

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR – EUR, USD, GBP

Forex Market Volatility: Currency Options Imply Muted Price Action Next WeekEUR, GBP, USD Forex Economic Calendar ChartForex Market Volatility: Currency Options Imply Muted Price Action Next Week

Visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a comprehensive list of upcoming economic events and data releases affecting the global markets.

Turning to the US Dollar, forex traders will likely parse the Fed minutes from its FOMC meeting in March with the expectation of uncovering details of the Fed’s latest dovish position. The consumer price index will also likely be eyed for potential signs of inflation. If core PCE overshoots expectations, the prospect of a dovish Fed may be thwarted especially considering the disconnect between the Fed projecting one more rate hike this year while futures on overnight indexed swaps are pricing in a 25 basis point cut at its December 2019 meeting. University of Michigan’s sentiment reading will cap off the week for US data.

While currency markets await the slew of economic data due for release out of the UK, the latest Brexit developments will likely dictate GBP performance. The ongoing impasse in British Parliament has shown little sign of progress towards reaching a Brexit Withdrawal Agreement even as the already-extended Article 50 deadline on April 12 approaches. While MPs have passed legislation opposing a no-deal departure from the EU, they are not legally binding.

Take a look at this Brexit Timeline for a chronological list of the major Brexit developments and respective impact on the British markets.

As such, it remains that the legal default for Brexit is the UK to severing itself from the EU on April 12 without a Withdrawal Agreement. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney recent emphasized this as he stated how the risk of no-deal Brexit remains high and underpriced by markets. However, Theresa May just submitted a letter to the EU requesting another Article 50 extension to delay the Brexit deadline again.

TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

- Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.