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Gold Price Forecast: Short-Term Support Ahead of US Labour Report (NFPs)

Gold Price Forecast: Short-Term Support Ahead of US Labour Report (NFPs)

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


What's on this page

Gold Price Analysis, News and US NFPs.

  • Gold sits on support, waiting for the next signal.
  • US-China trade talks supportive for gold.

DailyFX Gold Landing Page – Prices, Charts, Analysis and Real-Time News

Gold continues to build a base ahead of the monthly US Labour Report (NFPs) although the precious metal is reasonably subdued and looking for the next impulse. Friday’s NFP release may push gold higher if market expectations are not met. Recent US data saw ISM non-manufacturing miss expectations while Wednesday’s ADP employment change came in at 129k against a prior month’s reading of 197k and expectations of 180k. Friday’s NFP is expected to show 183k jobs created but care is needed as prior month’s numbers have been revised notably. US wage growth is expected to remain steady at 3.4% y/y and dip to 0.2% from 0.4% m/m.

DailyFX analyst David Song will be covering the US Labour Report (NFPs) Live.

The US dollars recent status as asafe-haven currency may soon slip if reports are correct that US-China trade talks are making progress. Any resolution, or commentary leading up to this, will see markets turn risk-on, pushing the US dollar lower and reinforcing gold’s bid.

The daily chart shows gold currently supported around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,287.6/0z. Below here, recent lows between $1,277/oz. and $1,280/oz. come into play and guard the 50% Fib level at $1,262.8/0z. The CCI indictor is just moving out of oversold conditions and may support the precious metal further.

Gold Q2 Forecast: Bets for Fed Rate-Cut Fosters Bullish Outlook.

Gold Daily Price Chart (April 2018 – April 4, 2019)

IG Client Sentiment shows that retail traders are 76.7% net-long of Gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. However, the recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a mixed trading bias.

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.