We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Markets Weigh Weekend Headline Risk - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2019/10/18/Crude-Oil-Prices-May-Fall-as-Markets-Weigh-Weekend-Headline-Risk.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #CrudeOil #OOTT
  • Greed has proven to be a hindrance more than assistance for traders. How does greed lead to #FOMOintrading? Find out from @RichardSnowFX here: https://t.co/aT8TZjlFqP https://t.co/DBuSOfIhQY
  • US Dollar Forecast: USD/MYR Reversal as USD/PHP Tests 2013 Support #USD $USDMYR $USDPHP - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2019/10/18/US-Dollar-Forecast-USDMYR-Reversal-as-USDPHP-Tests-2013-Support.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/VfFPJhPX31
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/aqWMzoZRrk
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.68%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 80.94%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/CFFN6tgMXb
  • #GBPUSD Testing Five-Year Resistance: Breakout Ahead? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/gbp-usd/2019/10/18/GBPUSD-Testing-Five-Year-Resistance-Breakout-Ahead.html
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.42% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.12% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.10% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.03% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.00% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/i1K0L7cDfA
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.09% US 500: -0.13% France 40: -0.31% Germany 30: -0.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/ly8aOm0jV8
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/taFcP1Ge44
  • RT @markets: Reserve Bank watchers consider the options for Australian QE and how it would impact markets https://t.co/9gYZgZXeE5
Currency Volatility: RBA Could Jolt AUDUSD Price Action

Currency Volatility: RBA Could Jolt AUDUSD Price Action

2019-04-01 22:45:00
Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst
Share:

AUDUSD IMPLIED VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS

  • AUDUSD overnight implied volatility skyrockets to 10.7 percent in anticipation of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate review expected Tuesday at 3:00 GMT
  • Although markets are largely expecting the RBA to keep interest rates on hold at 1.50 percent, Governor Philip Lowe could provide supplemental information on the central bank’s latest view on monetary policy and economic outlook
  • New to Forex? Check out this free Forex for Beginners educational trading guide

Forex option traders have bid up implied volatility on overnight AUDUSD contracts ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monetary policy decision slated for Tuesday at 3:00 GMT. While the central bank is widely expected to stay on the sidelines and leave its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.50 percent, follow-up commentary from Governor Lowe looks to provide AUD traders with additional insight on the RBA’s next move.

FOREX MARKET IMPLIED VOLATILITIES AND TRADING RANGES

Forex Market Implied Volatility Trading Ranges EURUSD GBPUSD USDJPY USDCHF USDCAD AUDUSD NZDUSDCurrency market implied volatility USD, AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR, CHF, CAD, JPY

The accompanying monetary policy decision statement will likely highlight the latest developments in Australia’s labor and housing markets which largely contribute to the central bank’s relative dovish or hawkish tilt. Despite the Australian unemployment rate recently dropping to 4.9 percent, its lowest reading since June 2011, the RBA could still refrain from taking a less-dovish stance in consideration of neighboring New Zealand whose central bank hinted at cutting the country's policy interest rate last week.

AUDUSD CURRENCY PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (MARCH 05, 2019 TO APRIL 01, 2019)

AUDUSD Currency Price Chart Ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision April 1, 2019

AUDUSD spot prices have recently traded between the 23.6 percent and 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement lines drawn from March’s low and high. Although, the currency pair appears to have coiled between short-term trendlines which could position AUDUSD for a material break above downtrend resistance or below uptrend support. According to overnight implied volatility measures, however, currency market participants could expect AUDUSD to trade between 0.7076 and 0.7156.

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR – AUDUSD

Australian Dollar US Dollar economic data releases upcoming

Visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a comprehensive list of upcoming economic events and data releases affecting the global markets.

In addition to the RBA’s rate review, a handful of economic data out of Australia and the US could exacerbate AUDUSD price volatility. The latest reading on US Durable Goods Orders could move the market’s needle if actual data crosses the wires materially above or below consensus. Also, AiG’s Performance of Services Index has potential to send AUDUSD gyrating later in Tuesday’s session depending on the reading.

AUDUSD CLIENT SENTIMENT

AUDUSD Currency Price Chart Client Sentiment Trader Positioning

Check out IG’s Client Sentiment here for more detail on the bullish and bearish biases of EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, Gold, Bitcoin and S&P500.

According to IG’s client positioning data, 61.3 percent of AUDUSD traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.59 to 1. Moreover, traders have grown increasing bullish AUDUSD as the number of traders net-long is 11.4 percent higher than Friday and 26.9 percent higher compared to last week. However, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment which suggests AUDUSD prices may continue to fall.

- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

- Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.