News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/MrLGSp7FYa https://t.co/m42Rdv39Dx
  • Chinese estates' Evergrande loss assumes all shares sold -BBG #Evergrande
  • RT @FxWestwater: Australian Dollar Fights FOMC-Charged US Dollar After Upbeat PMI Data Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/09/22/Australian-Dollar-Fights-FOMC-Charged-US-Dollar-After-Upbeat-PMI-Data.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr $AUDUSD https://t.co…
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Foreign Bond Investment (18/SEP) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Gold prices gain as potential systemic risks out of China's Evergrande Group roil broader markets. Meanwhile, iron ore is ticking higher after a big drop on Monday as China steps up steelmaking curbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/l4kAWDrr7M https://t.co/B041Lqtg3S
  • #ASEAN based #USD index continues to extend the bounce off September lows post #FOMC This follows a test of the 100-day SMA as well as a rising trendline from June Eyes on the 38.2% Fib extension before potentially retesting the July/August highs https://t.co/uZ7OEJurPs
  • 🇦🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 57.3 Previous: 52 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • 🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Flash (SEP) Actual: 44.9 Previous: 42.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash (SEP) due at 23:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 52 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Flash (SEP) due at 23:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 42.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
New Zealand Dollar Fades As ANZ Business Confidence Flops Again

New Zealand Dollar Fades As ANZ Business Confidence Flops Again

David Cottle, Analyst

New Zealand Dollar, ANZ Business Confidence Talking Points:

  • ANZ’s sentiment measure wilted again
  • Weak confidence remains entrenched and will likely hit investment going forward
  • The Reserve Bank’s new caution may enhance the currency impact of soft data

Join our analysts for live, interactive coverage of all major economic data at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

The New Zealand Dollar was knocked Thursday by yet another weak business confidence reading which, while hardly news in itself, may now have more bearing on the path of domestic interest rates.

The March confidence outlook from the Australia and New Zealand Bank came in at -38, well below February’s -30.9. The activity outlook slipped to 6.3 from 10.5. Weakness in this release is sadly nothing new. Confidence has been in negative territory since late 2017.

ANZ said that the economy is quietly losing steam, with firms increasingly wary. It also suspected that the ‘hard’ official economic numbers could start to wilt further too.

Given that gloomy read it’s hardly surprising that NZD/USD should have slipped.

New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - 5min

The effect of weak data may be magnified following commentary from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after it opted to keep interest rates on hold at record lows Wednesday. The RBNZ noted a shift in economic risks to the downside, leaving lower rates as an implicit likelihood. The central bank had previously been more balanced in its prognosis.

That shift had already hit the Kiwi hard this week, taking it below its former, resilient uptrend.

New Zealand Dollar Fades As ANZ Business Confidence Flops Again

It’s now possible that domestic economic numbers will have a lot more impact on the currency, especially if they are seen to confirm the RBNZ’s darker suspicions.

Technically speaking the pair is flirting with the second, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its 2019 rise. That comes in at 0.6797 and seems to be giving way under concerted bear pressure. Failure here will probably put focus on the 0.6750 area which marks the last significant low, made earlier this month. It also coincides neatly with the 50% retracement.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter @DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES