0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @FxWestwater: $USDTRY, $EURTRY Jump to Record Highs on #Lira Weakness - via @DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/08/06/USDTRY-EURTRY-Jump-to-Record-High-on-Lira-Weakness.html https://t.co/LsZS5Tifho
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 4.47% Gold: 0.94% Oil - US Crude: 0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/uUMsYzfIqQ
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.61% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.43% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.37% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.18% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/qChN4x7BRN
  • 🇷🇺 Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) Actual: 3.4% Expected: 3.4% Previous: 3.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-06
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.04% France 40: -0.02% Germany 30: -0.07% FTSE 100: -0.09% US 500: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/1YBsxDGpxy
  • RT @realDonaldTrump: Upon departing the Oval Office for Ohio, I’ve notified my staff to continue working on an Executive Order with respect…
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) due at 16:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 3.4% Previous: 3.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-06
  • Japanese #Yen Outlook: $USDJPY Rebounds Off Support- Recovery Levels - https://t.co/3Q9KuieaSE https://t.co/iMyJx8fBwL
  • House Speaker Pelosi says "we have to think big" regarding stimulus $DXY $SPX
  • Hey traders! Get your Thursday market highlighs from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/com5RRIcDN
Dow Jones Outlook: Index Awaits US GDP on Shaky Ground

Dow Jones Outlook: Index Awaits US GDP on Shaky Ground

2019-03-27 20:30:00
Peter Hanks, Analyst
Share:

Dow Jones Outlook Talking Points:

Dow Jones Outlook: Index Awaits US GDP on Shaky Ground

The Dow Jones will look to Thursday’s release of the finalized GDP data from the United States. While the initial fourth quarter figure – which often has a larger market reaction - was released a month ago, the final yearly data print is still subject to revisions and could deliver a shock to the Industrial Average given the landscape. The current standing of the Dow Jones and other US indices appears vulnerable and a disappointing conclusion to last year’s data could take advantage of that vulnerability.

US Gross Domestic Product Quarter over Quarter (Chart 1)

US GDP

See how IG clients are positioned on various currencies and assets with IG Client Sentiment Data.

According to the put-call ratio of the S&P 500, some traders have braced for bearish price action – possibly envisioning a negative data print or a continuation of the recent risk-off attitude due to other factors. The ratio of puts to calls on the index climbed to 0.98 in Wednesday trading, the highest since January 10 when the S&P 500 traded below 2,600 and the ratio was 1.

S&P 500 Price and Put-Call Ratio (Chart 2)

S&P 500 put call ratio

That said, some sectors may be more vulnerable than others. Manufacturing is one of the more sensitive industries to economic production as the outlook for growth can help or hurt companies that rely on continuous expansion.

Dow Jones Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January 2018 – March 2019) (Chart 3)

Dow Jones price chart and xli etf price chart

Dow Jones price chart overlaid with ratio of S&P 500 to XLI ETF in red

The industrial-tracking XLI ETF has recently lagged the broader S&P 500 likely due to considerable concern over slowing global growth and in part because of Boeing’s recent struggles. A poor GDP print would prove troublesome for the industry and likely contribute to further underperformance in the sector.

Dow Jones Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (October 2018 – March 2019) (Chart 4)

dow jones price chart

Today, the index finds itself trading indecisively in a narrowing wedge, with opportunities for a continuation higher – despite the apparent fundamental headwinds.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: S&P 500 Outlook: Dark Clouds Forming Over US Markets

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.