News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇳🇱 Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) Actual: 1.8% Previous: 1.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-04
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.03%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 69.08%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/rHzkW4zqv7
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/kIGn36WXO2
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.28% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.09% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/d2JGjMhNQn
  • Heads Up:🇳🇱 Inflation Rate YoY (FEB) due at 05:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 1.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-04
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.33% US 500: -0.54% FTSE 100: -0.54% France 40: -0.67% Germany 30: -0.81% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/WVmqPR5R29
  • Risk trends are on the lam again with Nasdaq 100 threatening to usher the reversal, but I remain skeptical that fire will catch. Meanwhile, global 10yr yields are rising again, pulling gold down. Watch I'm watching: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/03/04/Nasdaq-Breakdown-Raises-Risk-Trend-Questions-Yields-Push-Dollar-and-Gold.html https://t.co/2RFnWOaXa4
  • 🇯🇵 Consumer Confidence (FEB) Actual: 33.8 Previous: 29.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-04
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Consumer Confidence (FEB) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 29.6 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-04
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum look set to climb higher in the near term, as Citigroup and Goldman Sachs prove additional validation to the cryptocurrency market. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/uqdtJGoz1E https://t.co/2Ja5iyJm7X
Looming Brexit Votes, US Data and BOJ to Stir Forex Volatility Next Week

Looming Brexit Votes, US Data and BOJ to Stir Forex Volatility Next Week

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

IMPLIED VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS

  • GBPUSD 1-week implied volatility spikes to 13.35 percent, the highest level since January 15, ahead of crucial upcoming Brexit votes
  • The release of several economic indicators from the US combined with increasing risk aversion and Bank of Japan’s approaching interest rate decision could bring about heightened price action in USD and JPY forex pairs
  • Searching for ways to improve your trading skills? Download the free DailyFX Education Guide on Building Confidence in Trading here!

Although forex market implied volatility dipped as currency option traders catch their breath from the rollercoaster-ride of price action realized over the last few days of trading, the British Pound Sterling and Japanese Yen could see some sizable price swings next week.

CURRENCY MARKET IMPLIED VOLATILITY AND TRADING RANGES

Looming Brexit Votes, US Data and BOJ to Stir Forex Volatility Next WeekForex market 1-day and 1-week implied volatility for USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF

GBPUSD will likely take the spotlight in the week ahead with Prime Minister Theresa May and British Parliament slated to hold three Brexit votes across March 12 and March 14. The UK and EU have been holding discussions over the last few days that look to extend throughout weekend as negotiators search for further assurances that can be made over the Irish backstop.

Without additional concessions, a second meaningful vote looks unlikely to pass the House of Commons which would set the UK on a path towards extending Article 50 and the March 29 divorce date. If the likelihood of a deal that leads to a soft-Brexit dwindles, the GBP could experience additional selling pressure. On the contrary, a deal breakthrough could very well send the Pound marching higher.

UPCOMING FOREX ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES AND EVENT RISKS

Looming Brexit Votes, US Data and BOJ to Stir Forex Volatility Next WeekLooming Brexit Votes, US Data and BOJ to Stir Forex Volatility Next Week

Currency traders will likely parse upcoming US economic data in hopes of gauging the Fed’s latest stance on monetary policy and impact on the US Dollar. Equity markets have begun to slip as investor angst re-enters the market due to a global economy that seems to keep slowing. If the trend continues, traders will likely rotate positioning from risk-on to risk-off.

Also noteworthy is the 1-week implied volatility for USDJPY topping its highest level in over a month ahead of BOJ’s interest rate decision and Governor Kuroda’s follow-up commentary. Traders will likely listen closely to the central banks language which comes after incredibly dovish remarks from the ECB that sent the EURUSD plummeting earlier this week.

GBPUSD AND USDJPY TRADER SENTIMENT

Looming Brexit Votes, US Data and BOJ to Stir Forex Volatility Next Week

GBPUSD retail client positioning shows that 64.6 percent of traders hold net-long positions headed into next week which is the highest since February 17. The ratio of long to short traders rests at 1.81 while the number of traders net-long is 19.9 percent higher from last week’s reading.

Looming Brexit Votes, US Data and BOJ to Stir Forex Volatility Next Week

USDJPY retail client positioning shows that 45.6 percent of traders hold net-long positions headed into next week. The ratio of short to long traders rests at -1.19 which has remained net-short since February 27. The number of traders net-long is 7.1 percent lower from last week’s reading.

---

Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX

Follow on Twitter @RichDvorakFX

Check out our Education Center for more information on Currency Forecasts and Trading Guides.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES