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Crude Oil Analysis: Oil Underpinned by $65, Range Holds For Now

Crude Oil Analysis: Oil Underpinned by $65, Range Holds For Now

2019-03-07 10:17:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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Oil Price Analysis and News

  • Crude Stockpile Increase Fails to Dent Oil
  • Iranian Oil Waivers Extension

Crude Stockpile Increase Fails to Dent Oil

Brent crude futures are modestly firmer this morning with gains of 0.8%. Yesterday’s EIA inventory report showed a larger than expected build in crude stockpiles at 7mln, however, given that this had been lower than the API report of 7.4mln, Brent crude futures saw an initial blip higher. Alongside this, support from the $65/bbl handle continues to keep Brent underpinned.

Iranian Oil Waivers Extension

Early May will see the current waivers to purchase Iranian oil for 8 countries expire. Much of the focus over the coming month will be as to whether the US will grant an extension to the current oil waivers. While India has highlighted that they want to continue to purchase around 300kbpd of Iranian oil in any extension, the US State Department has reiterated their desire to push Iranian oil purchases to zero. A decision not to provide an extension would likely see oil prices continue to firm.

Oil Impact on FX

Net Oil Importers: These countries tend to be worse off when the price of oil rises. This includes, KRW, ZAR, INR, TRY, EUR, CNY, IDR, JPY

Net Oil Exporters: These counties tend to benefit when the price of oil rises. This includes RUB, CAD, MXN, NOK.

BRENT CRUDE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Aug 2018 – Mar 2019)

Crude Oil Analysis: Oil Underpinned by $65, Range Holds For Now

While the trend remains modestly bullish, price action has been somewhat range-bound in recent weeks, given the lack of volatility. Eyes on a topside break above the 2019 high ($67.82), which could see Brent move towards $68.50.

OIL MARKET ANALYSIS

What Traders Need to Know When Trading the Oil Market

Important Difference Between WTI and Brent

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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