News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 19:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.41% Germany 30: 0.36% FTSE 100: 0.34% US 500: -0.05% Wall Street: -1.10% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/fFsUz2EvOi
  • The US Dollar is continuing to strength today. The $DXY has risen above the 90.80 level to its highest point since last Wednesday. $USD https://t.co/OFWBlH3loM
  • quite the reversal in commod currencies over the past two days. $USDCAD from falling wedge support to resistance. this tl held a number of inflections earlier this month, now being tested through https://t.co/O2zqFkYz9Y https://t.co/Rljf0c6JE3
  • $USDCHF rose to trading above the 0.9100 level for the first time since November. $USD $CHF https://t.co/afJSa3Ap5h
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.86%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 67.99%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/7CenEe3hcL
  • Hey traders! Wrap up your week with a quick market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/9Sfqv1U0TJ
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: -2.02% Gold: -2.70% Silver: -4.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/pOc7rwbN4x
  • Forex Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.41% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.45% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.51% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.76% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.57% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.85% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/wtEBvYAAG2
  • A pullback off confluence uptrend support threatens a larger pullback here but keeps the broader trade constructive while within this formation. Get your $btc market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/ScHuboiZRB https://t.co/gNiGelWKTM
  • Indices Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.49% France 40: 0.47% Germany 30: 0.45% US 500: 0.28% Wall Street: -0.69% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/4LwfSsKX6u
AUDUSD Outlook: Focus on Q4 GDP & RBA Governor Lowe Speech

AUDUSD Outlook: Focus on Q4 GDP & RBA Governor Lowe Speech

Justin McQueen, Analyst

AUD Analysis and Talking Points

  • RBA Rate Decision Review
  • Australian GDP Tilted to the Downside
  • Markets Price in Rate Cuts

DailyFX Q1 2019 Trading Forecasts for AUD

RBA Rate Decision Review

Overnight, the RBA kept its cash rate at 1.50% with the accompanying statement largely in line with the prior months. The central bank highlighted that the Australian labour market remains strong, while also continuing to expect that growth for 2019 is to hover around 3%, however, the RBA did continue to highlight concerns over household consumption and the uncertainty that US-China trade wars provide. In reaction, the AUD was relatively unmoved with the RBA providing little in the way of new policy signals. Going forward, the focus for AUD watchers will be on tonight’s speech by RBA Governor Lowe and Q4 GDP report.

Australian GDP Tilted to the Downside

Given the recent run of data in the lead to Q4 GDP figures, risks are tilted to the downside. As it stands, the RBA forecasts household consumption at 0.6%, however, with the Q4 retail sales volume hitting 0.1%, the central bank could be somewhat disappointed. As a reminder, consumption makes up around 60% of GDP. Alongside this, yesterday’s Q4 inventories data posted surprise decline, while corporate profits saw a sizeable miss at 0.8% (Exp. 3%). Consequently, Aussie GDP may disappoint expectations of 0.3%, which may be enough to provide fresh dovish signals from the RBA in the near-term.

AUDUSD Outlook: Focus on Q4 GDP & RBA Governor Lowe Speech

Markets Price in Rate Cuts

Amid the domestic risks to the Australian economy, markets continue to see a rate cut as the most likely move with a 25bps cut near enough fully priced in by the year-end. As such, for a rate cut to become a near-term risk, a pick-up in the unemployment rate, alongside weak GDP and the continued decline in house prices would be needed.

AUDUSD Outlook: Focus on Q4 GDP & RBA Governor Lowe Speech

Option Markets

Throughout the European session, upside in AUDUSD is likely to be capped at 0.7150, with 3.4bln worth of vanilla options rolling off, while 1.6bln sits at 0.7050. Elsewhere, AUDUSD ATM O/n vols are at 13.325 = 39pips breakeven (Covering RBA Governor Lowe speech + Q4 GDP).

AUD Technical Analysis Overview: AUDUSD, AUDJPY, AUDNZD

AUD TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES