We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @next_china: U.S., China chief trade negotiators spoke by phone on Saturday, Xinhua reports https://t.co/dMQtd0g4jY
  • The $AUDUSD and $EURUSD downtrend may prolong as traders counterintuitively buy into their descent. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD uptrend may accelerate on rising net-short bets. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/dlzJ31kf3f https://t.co/xp8P9MmCgb
  • As we head into next week, Cable is continuing to digest the massive leg higher last month, which at some point soon could mean another surge. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/LJ42YhDe3X https://t.co/5hGwhGBpLB
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/E2hqoRdO7q https://t.co/urMnUCq4fn
  • RT @markets: White-hot pot stocks have flamed out in spectacular fashion https://t.co/3GsVsRyZaZ
  • What is the best time to trade #forex? Find out: https://t.co/M9R46r5ewa #tradingstyle https://t.co/gJ1QDrox67
  • #Gold prices may be given a tailwind from the FOMC minutes and escalating trade war risks if they fuel demand for anti-fiat assets amid expectations of additional Fed easing. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/OJ7WUY9W7E $gld https://t.co/kBp3opzptm
  • Why should you set trading goals? How can it help regardless of what your #tradingstyle is? Find out: https://t.co/AYdD7ODlv1 https://t.co/G0ftVurNNN
  • Manning the penalty box today...i hope there aren't too many visitors https://t.co/1y81Li7laL
  • Do you think your #tradingstyle is of a #FOMO trader? Find out how you can turn that to #JOMO? Find out: https://t.co/79Q4pYdVEd https://t.co/S82AOd5AeP
GBPUSD Price Analysis: No-Deal Brexit Likely Avoided

GBPUSD Price Analysis: No-Deal Brexit Likely Avoided

2019-02-28 10:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

GBP Price Analysis and Talking Points:

  • No Deal Risks Recede, GBP to Remain Firm
  • Options Market Suggest No-Deal Likely Avoided
  • Uncertainty to Persist Despite Possible Extension

See our quarterly GBP forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q1.

No Deal Risks Recede, GBP to Remain Firm

Since Theresa May promised parliament that MPs will vote on the Withdrawal Agreement (Mar 12th), no-deal (Mar 13th) and an Article 50 extension (Mar 14th), GBP has gained across the board, hitting 7-month highs vs USD and the best level since May 2017 vs EUR. Largely on the basis that no-deal risks have eased quite considerable, while the likelihood of an Article 50 extension have also increased, consequently suggesting that the approach to Brexit is softening. This was further reinforced by MPs voting to pass the cooper amendment yesterday, which puts Theresa May’s pledge to hold a vote on Brexit delay in writing.

Options Market Suggest No-Deal Likely Avoided

With just one month till the scheduled Brexit date, 1M option expiry now covers this. However, risk premiums have not seen a notable lift, implying that markets do not see a significant risk that the UK will leave the EU with a no-deal. Alongside this, while GBP 1M risk reversals remain in negative (higher premium for puts vs calls), this has not been extended to extreme levels, further suggesting that a no-deal has likely been avoided.

Uncertainty to Persist Despite Possible Extension

While the probability of a Brexit delay of 2-3 months have increased. This does not necessarily mean that the Brexit uncertainty will not continue to linger given that it is not entirely certain whether a significant change will be made. However, through the process of elimination the threat of a no-deal would continue to recede, which in turn could lift GBPUSD towards 1.35.

GBPUSD 1-MONTH ATM OPTION

GBPUSD Price Analysis: No-Deal Brexit Likely Avoided

GBPUSD 1-MONTH RISK REVERSAL

GBPUSD Price Analysis: No-Deal Brexit Likely Avoided

GBP TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.