We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • #DidYouKnow traders generally prefer using candlestick charts for day-trading because they offer an enjoyable visual perception of price. Find out how you can utilize it in your trading strategy here: https://t.co/yFn12QgmxO https://t.co/QyHKRJOhDW
  • En español: ¿Qué trayectoria tomará el tipo de cambio del $EURUSD tras los anuncios de política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo y la Reserva Federal? #trading #forex #euro #EURUSD https://t.co/X1nRprTTRU https://t.co/5ZRMRpkro3
  • How can traders avoid #FOMOintrading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 https://t.co/eKVhbAGd4C
  • The $NZD has slumped back toward support at four-year lows as sellers retake control of price action after a punchy but brief corrective recovery. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/72JZNVKUy4 https://t.co/e8ygfe6gGf
  • Part of trading is losing, that’s just a fact that everyone must accept straight away, How can #FOMO create hurdles in the process? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/MwChGXI42z https://t.co/slj8Xr0dxH
  • #USDollar May Rise if US #GDP Data, #TradeWar Risks Spook Markets https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2019/09/21/US-Dollar-May-Rise-if-US-GDP-Data-Trade-War-Risks-Spook-Markets.html
  • Asia #FX markets will be closely watching for developments in the ongoing China-led RCEP trade negotiations against the backdrop of slower global growth and rising protectionism. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/HZ8Loqj3Ey https://t.co/g332JcY549
  • What are trading journals? How can you create one and reduce your #FOMOintrading? Find out: https://t.co/0akgWbyJEw https://t.co/Xyy7rxZHip
  • 💷 $GBP British Pound Weekly Technical Outlook My latest take on Sterling price action as #Brexit risk comes back into scope. Commentary on the charts and implied volatility table included. More via @DailyFX ➡️ https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/09/21/gbp-to-usd-price-analysis-british-pound-eyes-rise-in-brexit-risk.html https://t.co/Hd6LAurfqG
  • The Singapore Dollar is driven by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages exchange rate instead of short-term interest rates. Learn more on the $SGD and how to trade it from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/eWLM9XZs5Y https://t.co/SCHhCQhlFV
Australian Dollar Eyeing China PMI Data - Trade War on Back Burner?

Australian Dollar Eyeing China PMI Data - Trade War on Back Burner?

2019-02-27 01:30:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Junior Currency Analyst
Share:

AUD TALKING POINTS – AUD/JPY, CHINA PMI, US-CHINA TRADE WAR, RBA

  • Aussie keeping eye on Chinese PMI
  • China growth in focus for Australia
  • RBA now has ‘more balanced’ view

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

The Australian Dollar will be keeping a close eye on China’s upcoming manufacturing PMI release. The data is scheduled to be published on February 28 at 01:00 GMT. Current forecasts are pegged at 49.4 with the previous at 49.5. The economy has only recently been outperforming relative to economists’ expectations, but not by a substantial margin and the outlook still remains uncertain.

Chart Showing China's and Australia's Economy

In addition to concerns of slower growth and rising corporate default rates, the exact outcome of the trade negotiations remain unclear. Despite Trump tweeting on Sunday his plan to postpone the tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, issues over technology and IP remain at the core. On the same day, China’s state-run agency Xinhua also announced that there may be greater friction as the two sides approach a deal.

The impact of the US-China trade dispute has weighed on RBA policymakers, with Governor Philip Lowe recently announcing that the central bank does not see ‘a strong case for near-term adjustment’. Other comments also revealed that the outlook is ‘more balanced’, signaling that the probability of a cut is now relatively equal to the possibility of a hike.

Looking ahead, Aussie traders will be watching China’s Caixin PMI report on Friday along with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech on economic challenges and the outlook for the US economy. If in his speech he hints that growth may be slower and downside risks are swelling, it could weigh on sentiment and push the cycle-sensitive Aussie down.

Since February 11 AUD/JPY has been trending higher and appears to be coming closer to the 79.899 resistance. This comes despite the setback on February 21 when a major Chinese port announced it was putting a ban on importing Australian coal. Assuming Chinese PMI data comes in higher than expected, depending on the magnitude, it could push the pair beyond 79.899.

AUD/JPY – Daily Chart

Chart Showing AUD/JPY

However, waiting for confirmation above this line is key. It could very well dip below it the following day. For the time being, the trade war issue is on the back burner but will continue to linger in the background until a final non-ambiguous deal is reached. But even then, will it be sufficient enough to give investors an optimistic outlook for global growth in 2019?

AUD/JPY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.