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Crude Oil Analysis: Risk of Larger Drop if Trump Mulls Emergency Stockpile Release

Crude Oil Analysis: Risk of Larger Drop if Trump Mulls Emergency Stockpile Release

2019-02-26 10:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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Oil Price Analysis and News

  • Oil Rally Fizzles After Trump Rhetoric
  • Risk of Trump Considering SPR Release

Oil Rally Fizzles After Trump Rhetoric

Crude oil futures dropped as much as 3% yesterday after President Trump warned OPEC that oil prices are getting too high. Consequently, this weighed on oil related commodity currencies (NOK, CAD) vs oil importers (JPY, EUR). While oil has had an impressive start to the year, up 20% amid OPEC oil cuts, alongside sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. However, given that the fundamentals remain intact and with OPEC intent on cutting oil production by 1.2mbpd, risks to the downside may rise if Saudi Arabia relents.

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President Trump Tweets on OPEC

Apr 20th 2018

Looks like OPEC is at it again. With record amounts of Oil all over the place, including the fully loaded ships at sea, Oil prices are artificially Very High! No good and will not be accepted!

Jun 13th 2018

Oil prices are too high, OPEC is at it again. Not good!

Jun 22nd 2018

Hope OPEC will increase output substantially. Need to keep prices down!

Jul 4th 2018

The OPEC Monopoly must remember that gas prices are up & they are doing little to help. If anything, they are driving prices higher as the United States defends many of their members for very little $’s. This must be a two way street. REDUCE PRICING NOW!

Sep 20th 2018

We protect the countries of the Middle East, they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices! We will remember. The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now!

Nov 12th 2018

Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!

Dec 5th 2018

Hopefully OPEC will be keeping oil flows as is, not restricted. The World does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!

Feb 25th 2019

Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike - fragile!

Source: Twitter

Risk of Trump Considering SPR Release

While Trump’s comments may have dented the recent oil rally, a continued upside in oil prices may raise the possibility of an announcement that would entail the US considering an SPR release, which could curb limit upside potential in oil prices. As a reminder, during throughout Q4 2018, the US had been releasing its emergency stockpile, which had been among the factors contributing to oils steep declines.

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What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

The SPR is the world’s largest oil stockpile, which holds around 660mln barrels of US crude. According to the Energy Department, it is predominantly intended to be used in the event of a war (2011 Libyan War) that disrupts global oil supply or following a natural disaster (hurricanes) so that the US economy would be protected from supply shocks in times of tightened supply. However, non-emergency sales can be authorized in order to respond to minor supply disruptions or to raise federal revenue.

Oil Impact on FX

Net Oil Importers: These countries tend to be worse off when the price of oil rises. This includes, KRW, ZAR, INR, TRY, EUR, CNY, IDR, JPY

Net Oil Exporters: These counties tend to benefit when the price of oil rises. This includes RUB, CAD, MXN, NOK.

More Reading

What Traders Need to Know When Trading the Oil Market

Important Difference Between WTI and Brent

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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