News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The retailer has created an event that sees its sales surpass Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/LCyr0z9DHh https://t.co/xDTXRH1TEj
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.44% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.43% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.19% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.11% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/CoczW1YszK
  • US API Stock Changes: #Crude -7.199M #Cushing -2.550M #Gasoline +0.959M #Distillate +0.992M #Oil $CL_F
  • Bitcoin breached the key psychological level of $30,000 for the first time since January The Jan 22 swing low of $28,800 came in to help cauterize support. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/zmlplL9ZqD https://t.co/6R5nFtVFYS
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.37% Gold: -0.28% Silver: -0.70% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/K9Qw88fR9n
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 87.01%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 68.82%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/HWcth7b6kv
  • WH Press Sec. Psaki: - More work remains on infrastructure after meeting - Today or tomorrow, a White House team will meet with Senators from both parties
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.01% Wall Street: 0.01% Germany 30: -0.11% France 40: -0.19% FTSE 100: -0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/HdfL6Ct6sE
  • McKesson said to explore sale of European, UK businesses -BBG $MCK $EURUSD $GBPUSD
  • EUR/GBP continues to trade towards the bottom of the trading range. Sentiment remains ‘mixed’ after near term decline in long positioning. Get your market updates from @RichardSnowFX here:https://t.co/i7uESnbkBE https://t.co/rdqrIAUnuG
Crude Oil Price May Falter as IEA Forecasts Supply Swamp

Crude Oil Price May Falter as IEA Forecasts Supply Swamp

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Crude Oil Talking Points:

  • The IEA found demand to be constant from the month prior, despite many agency’s warning of slower growth
  • Other energy agencies like OPEC and the EIA have recently lowered their demand expectations
  • With the two pricing factors at odds, the price of crude oil could come under pressure

Interested in trading Crude oil, Bitcoin or the Dow Jones? Learn specific trading strategies with ourDailyFX Trading Guides.

Crude oil may slide in the coming months as energy agencies continue to forecast a crude market swamped with supply at a time when demand has wavered. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported their monthly prognosis of the oil market on Wednesday and the findings echoed concerns of recent reports from OPEC and the Energy Information Administration (EIA). While OPEC and the EIA lowered their most recent demand expectations, the IEA maintained the same figures from January at 1.4 million barrels per day.

Crude Oil Supply Chart: IEA (Chart 1)

crude oil supply chart

On the supply side, the agency highlighted the headline factors that may drive crude lower in the coming quarters. “The global oil market will struggle this year to absorb fast-growing crude supply from outside OPEC, even with the group’s production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran,” the agency said. Despite the already considerable increase in crude production outside of OPEC, the IEA again raised its forecasts for supply from non-OPEC members in the month ahead. The estimate increased to 1.8 million barrels per day in 2019, from 1.6 million barrels per day previously.

One key uncertainty in the crude oil market is Venezuela. The OPEC member faces a multitude of sanctions from the United States and political uncertainty as the current President faces mounting pressure from the public and other countries to step down. Should the issue be resolved quickly, crude production could return to levels seen in prior years and flood the market further. On the other hand, a prolonged struggle may sap even more production from the country and drain some of the excess supply in the market. Either way, the situation will be important to watch as the struggle unfolds.

Crude Oil Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (January 2018 – February 2019) (Chart 2)

Crude Oil Price May Falter as IEA Forecasts Supply Swamp

Despite the ominous report crude closed slightly higher than it opened Wednesday, marginally below $54.00. That said, Crude’s price remains considerably lower than its altitude in October when it traded north of $75.00. Recent concerns of waning global growth helped to drive the price lower on the demand side, and the supply glut offered by non-OPEC members may look to keep it pressured for the foreseeable future.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: Will the Stock Market Crash in 2019?

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES