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Oil Price Analysis and News

  • Improved Risk Sentiment Provides Support
  • Brent Crude Technical Analysis

Improved Risk Sentiment Provides Support

While yesterday’s jawboning from OPEC continues to keep the oil complex bid. The improvement in the global risk tone has also provided a lift for Brent crude futures. Overnight, government shutdown fears had abated slightly after reports suggested that President Trump may reluctantly accept the bi-partisan agreement thus avoiding another government shutdown. On the Trade front, sentiment has picked up following news that President Xi were to meet with the Trump administration later this week, while President Trump has also hinted that the US could extend the March 1st deadline, provided that an agreement could be reached in the near-term, consequently reducing investor angst that trade tensions will escalate.

Brent Crude Technical Analysis

Brent crude futures continue to track higher with bulls eying a break above the 2019 peak ($63.63/bbl). A closing break above could see Brent make a test of the $64 handle in the near-term. As reminder, yesterday’s API crude inventory data showed a surprise drawdown of 998kbbls, as such, confirmation by today’s DoE data with a larger drawdown could see Brent at $64.

BRENT CRUDE PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Oct 2018 – Feb 2019)

Crude Oil Analysis: Bulls Eye Break of Crucial Resistance for Fresh 2019 Highs

Oil Impact on FX

Net Oil Importers: These countries tend to be worse off when the price of oil rises. This includes, KRW, ZAR, INR, TRY, EUR, CNY, IDR, JPY

Net Oil Exporters: These counties tend to benefit when the price of oil rises. This includes RUB, CAD, MXN, NOK.

Recommended Reading

What Traders Need to Know When Trading the Oil Market

Important Difference Between WTI and Brent

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX