We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.92% Gold: 0.19% Oil - US Crude: -0.96% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/tNZVRWuqxa
  • $USDJPY Daily Pivot Points: S3: 106.99 S2: 107.49 S1: 107.8 R1: 108.3 R2: 108.49 R3: 108.99 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.87%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 81.79%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/oMqXKRmxpn
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0847 S2: 1.0936 S1: 1.0969 R1: 1.1058 R2: 1.1115 R3: 1.1204 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • US Equities Update (Tuesday Close): $DJI +0.11% $SPX +0.25% $NDX +0.46% $RTY -0.38% $VIX -1.70%
  • #Brent: A break above $69.34 could push the price for a test of yesterday’s High at $71.03. Get your technical analysis from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/QE5zVInhPb #OOTT https://t.co/xQhpDP0UdB
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.08% France 40: 0.03% US 500: 0.01% Wall Street: 0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/Q0YYr8lAED
  • There is a significant disparity in US equity performance ($DJIA, green) and 'rest of world' ($VEU, blue). The global measure ($ACWI, candle) though presents the most impressive technical picture https://t.co/yCsUxO1xnK
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JUL) due at 20:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: $99.1b https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-17
  • The US Citi Economic Surprise Index rises to 26.1 after Industrial and Manufacturing production beat estimates $DXY https://t.co/lMQTVylxUh
Sterling (GBP) Struggles After Weak Q4 UK GDP Data

Sterling (GBP) Struggles After Weak Q4 UK GDP Data

2019-02-11 11:30:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:

Sterling Latest: UK GDP data and Brexit

  • UK Q4 GDP data missed expectations, renewing growth fears in the months ahead.
  • Brexit implications now becoming more evident.

We have recently released our Q1 2019 Trading Forecasts for a wide range of Currencies and Commodities, including GBPUSD along with our latest fundamental and medium-term term technical outlook.

Sterling (GBP) Under Pressure at the Start of the Week.

The latest look at the state of the UK economy shows growth slowing sharply on a month-on-month basis and turning negative, missing market expectations. The monthly figure fell to -0.4% from a prior +0.25 and missed expectations of 0.0%, while quarter-on-quarter growth fell to 0.2% from 0.6% in Q3.

According to the Office for National Statistics, “GDP slowed in the last three months of the year with the manufacturing of cars and steel products seeing steep falls and construction also declining. However, services continued to grow with the health sector, management consultants and IT all doing well. Declines were seen across the economy in December, but single month data can be volatile meaning quarterly figures often give a better indication of the health of the economy.”

The lack of any progress in Brexit negotiations, with talk now that they might go all the way down to the wire, is becoming even more apparent in UK hard data. In addition last week BoE governor Marke Carney downgraded 2019 UK GDP to 1.2% from 1.7%, citing ongoing Brexit concerns.

GBPUSD is now trading either side of 1.2900 and may well test 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2894 before attempting to break the recent three-week low at 1.2852.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (March 2018– February 11, 2019)

Sterling (GBP) Struggles After Weak Q4 UK GDP Data

IG Retail Sentiment data shows clients are 61.2% net-long GBPUSD, a bearish contrarian indicator. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD bearish contrarian trading bias.

DailyFX has a vast amount of resources to help traders make more informed decisions. These include a fully updated Economic Calendar, and a raft of constantly updated Educational and Trading Guides

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.