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TALKING POINTS – AUD/USD, RETAIL SALES, TRADE WARS, RBA, FEDERAL RESERVE

  • Australian Dollar fell against the greenback after retail sales data missed expectations
  • AUD/USD prices break January 2019 uptrend, bringing key levels 0.7161-0.234 into play
  • RBA rate decision, APAC equities’ performances, and December’s US CPI in the spotlight

Build confidence in your own AUD/USD strategy with the help of our free guide!

The Australian Dollar declined against its US counterpart after a local economic data crossed the wires early into Tuesday’s Asia Pacific trading session. Retail sales excluding inflation for the fourth quarter clocked in at 0.1%, down from both the forecasted 0.5% and previous 0.2%. The gauge measuring month-over-month fared similarly, declining 0.4%, a sharp downtick from the estimate of 0.0% and prior 0.5%.

AUD/USD Chart (15-minute)

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Chart prepared in TradingView

The sharp fall in AUD/USD prices has caused the currency pair to invalidate a rising trend line from January 2019, breaching support levels last seen in May and December 2016 at approximately 0.7161-0.7234. A break below this could indicate further losses and a reversal in recent bullish momentum, but may not occur against the backdrop of an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve and underwhelming US data.

AUD/USD Chart (Daily)

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Chart prepared in TradingView

Looking ahead, the currency pair will closely eye the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady, but may shift its stance to neutral following threats of a slowdown in global economic growth and the ongoing US-China trade war. However, gains in APAC equities later on in today’s trading session may cause the risk-on unit to pare its losses. AUD/USD will also look to forward guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, in addition to January’s US inflation data next week.

AUD/USD Trading Resources

--- Written by Megha Torpunuri, DailyFX Research Team