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EURUSD Edging Lower:

  • Sentix Euro-area economic index missed expectations and fell for the 6th month in a row.
  • EURUSD seemingly trapped below 1.1515.

Q1 2019 Trading Forecasts including USD and EUR.

EURUSD – Path of Least Resistance Suggest Lower Prices

The latest in a long line of weak Euro-Zone releases with the Sentix overall economic index missing expectations in February and printing at -3.7 (exp. -1.3/prior -1.5). This was the lowest level since November 2014 and the 6th decline in a row. The current situation also fell sharply to 10.8 from a prior 18.0 while the expectations nudged marginally higher to -17.3 from -19.3 in January.

The German economy continues to lose momentum, according to Sentix, with the countries export model ‘under pressure in view of the approaching Brexit and the problems in the Chinese sales market, which is important for the German car industry’. The German overall economic index fell to 3.1 from a prior 6.1. The release was the 4th decline in a row and the lowest reading since August 2012.

EURUSD continues to trade with a mildly negative bias with upside progress blocked by the 200-day moving average around 1.1515. The 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1448 is currently acting as a pivot for the pair with downside support around 1.1410 provided by the 20- and 50-day moving averages.

EURUSD Technical Analysis: Candle Setup Hints at Euro Weakness.

IG Client Sentiment data currently shows a mixed trading bias despite traders remaining short EURUSD by a ratio of 1.12 to 1 (47.2%).

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (July 2018 – February 4, 2019)

EURUSD Price Struggles After Latest Weak Economic Release

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.