We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.40%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 78.11%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/BjVYnfsHXz
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.62% Silver: 0.36% Oil - US Crude: -1.52% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/llYX3VfKF3
  • $EURGBP: A close above the high end of the zone cancels the last bearish signal and could trigger a rally towards 0.9015. Get your EUR/GBP technical analysis from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/vrZ2LODXky https://t.co/h1ksnzHtlO
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.14% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.23% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.28% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/XaAYYsiHDf
  • $EURGBP: los avances encuentran resistencia ante la reunión monetaria del #BCE #PEPP #trading https://t.co/qgCAFZm8xO
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.57% US 500: -0.61% Wall Street: -0.63% France 40: -0.76% Germany 30: -0.79% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/587ISZaa3R
  • BoE's Executive Director Hauser says negative rates won't happen in the near-term even if it decided it is right thing to do $GBP
  • 🇬🇷 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Actual: -1.6% Previous: -0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-04
  • 🇬🇷 GDP Growth Rate YoY Actual: -0.9% Previous: 1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-04
  • Heads Up:🇬🇷 GDP Growth Rate QoQ due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -0.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-04
Italy Enters a Technical Recession, EUR/USD Recovery Halted

Italy Enters a Technical Recession, EUR/USD Recovery Halted

2019-01-31 10:50:00
Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Analyst
Share:

EUR Analysis and Talking Points

  • Italy confirms it is in a technical recession
  • Italy’s contracting economy could re-open the budget crisis with the EU

For more in-depth analysis on EUR, read the brand new Q1 2019 FX forecast guides

Italy confirms it is in a Technical Recession

The Italian economy contracts for a second quarter in a row which means it has entered a technical recession, stalling the recent EUR/USD rally. The monthly figure was hinted by Italian president Giuseppe Conte yesterday, a day before the official release, as he mentioned that the Italian economy had probably shrunk in the fourth quarter. The quarterly rate, a fall of 0.2% (Exp. -0.1%) is not a big surprise, following Italy’s budget crisis with the EU in October and the notion that growth is slowing in many economies around the world. Continuing weaker-than-expected economic data being released by Germany, coupled with France’s private sector slowdown in the month of December, hinted that the Eurozone was likely to experience a slowdown in growth in the last quarter of 2018, which is confirmed by the Eurozone GDP figure announced today, a growth of just 0.2% (Exp. 0.2%). After the announcement, EUR/USD was trading marginally lower halting its recent rally and hovering just below the 1.15 handle.

Italy’s contracting economy could re-open the budget crisis with the EU

One of the likely implications of Italy’s contracting economy is that it could re-open the budget dispute between Italy and the EU, whereby the latter may demand Italy to lower its already revised deficit budget of 2.04 per cent of GDP (down from 2.4) which may in turn lead to further increases in the spread between the Italian 10-year bond yield and the German Bund, which act as a benchmark for sovereign risk in the Eurozone.

IG Client SentimentCurrent sentiment shows clients are net short 54% on EUR/USD, as such contrarian indicator signals remain bullish.

Recommended Reading

Eurozone Debt Crisis: How to Trade Future Disasters – Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor

EURUSD PRICE CHART: 1 minute Time-Frame (Intraday)

Italy Enters a Technical Recession, EUR/USD Recovery Halted

Chart by IG

KEY TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Junior Analyst

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.