US Dollar (USD) Faces a Pivotal Few Days Including FOMC & NFPs
US Dollar (USD) Price, News and Chart:
- Long-term average in play.
- Heavyweight US data and Fed Chair Powell’s latest thoughts.
The US dollar is sitting in a tight holding range ahead of a slew of potentially market moving data and news and the near-term direction is unlikely to be known until the end of the week. The first look at US Q4 GDP will highlight any potential effects from the recent partial government shutdown and trade war knock-ons, with the market expecting an annualized q/q fall to 2.6% from a prior 3.4%. The market will then go into wait-and-see mode ahead of the first FOMC policy a meeting of 2019. No changes to policy measures are expected but subsequent commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be parsed closely for any clues over the future path of US interest rates and if the central bank will loosen monetary policy at the margin via balance sheet tuning.
Markets will then look ahead to Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll release with expectations currently centering around the creation of 165k new jobs in January, down from a 10-month high of 312k in December. The December print helped pushed total US employment above 150 million for the first time.
200-day Moving Average in Play
Going into these events, the US dollar index (DXY) is trading in a very tight range around the important 200-day moving average. These tight ranges highlight, and the proximity to the 200-dma, open DXY up to sharp moves either way, leaving traders at risk. The RSI indicator is giving nothing away either, while a fall would target the January 10 low at 94.48 and a break higher would find resistance all the way up to the 96.15 level.
US Dollar Index (DXY)Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – January 30, 2019)
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