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Gold Breaks Higher, US Mulls Emergency Oil Stockpiles - US Market Open

Gold Breaks Higher, US Mulls Emergency Oil Stockpiles - US Market Open

2019-01-29 14:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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MARKET DEVELOPMENT – Gold Breaks Higher, US Mulls Emergency Oil Stockpiles

EUR: A relatively subdued affair for the Euro thus far with the currency flat on the day against the greenback. Alongside this, notable FX option expiries situated from 1.1410-75, likely to keep EURUSD within its recent range.

GBP: Calm before the Brexit storm as today’s focus falls on the key Brexit amendments for GBP. Brady and Cooper amendments have garnered the most attention, with the latter, if successful, can pressure to PM to extend Article 50. Consequently, limiting No-Deal Brexit risks and thus providing support for the Pound. Of note, option markets are pricing in over a 1% move in GBPUSD = 132pips. List of amendments tabled here Among those selected by the Speaker, Bercow, has been amendments B, consequently given a lift to the Pound at time of writing.

AUD: The Asian session saw soft NAB business conditions data pressure the Aussie, hitting lows of 0.7135. However, this had been short-lived after supportive commentary from RBA’s Harper who continued to reiterate that the next move in rates for the RBA is up rather than down. Although, markets remain somewhat sceptical by the RBA’s believe that they will raise rates, with OIS swaps pricing in over a 70% chance of a cut by the year-end. As such, this will place tomorrow’s CPI report under greater scrutiny, as a soft reading could spark a change in rate guidance by the RBA at next week’s decision. For now, 0.7200 set to contain upside, while downside via AUDJPY is becoming increasingly attractive.

Crude Oil: Crude oil futures are have recovered from yesterday’s losses with Brent reclaiming $60. The broader risk environment has provided support for oil, while US sanctions being imposed on Venezuela’s PDVSA aimed at reducing exports has also increased the upside risks to oil. However, reports price action has been somewhat muted so far, given that the impact on Venezuela’s exports is yet be known, while reports late yesterday suggested that the US may mull using emergency stockpiles (SPR release) to curtail impact.

Gold: The established uptrend in Gold continues with the precious metal pressing for better levels. Alongside this, eyes will be on for a test of $1320, however, fresh impulses would be needed in the form of dovish signals at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.

Gold Breaks Higher, US Mulls Emergency Oil Stockpiles - US Market Open

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Gold Breaks Higher, US Mulls Emergency Oil Stockpiles - US Market Open

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Four Things Traders are Reading

  1. Brexit Latest: Rumoured ’Plan C’ Could Fire Up Sterling (GBP)” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  2. EURUSD Price: Bounce off Technical Support Improves Outlook” by Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
  3. GBPUSD Outcome Dependent on Key Amendments for Today’s Brexit Showdown” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  4. Gold Price Further Gains Likely as US Dollar Wobbles” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.comFollow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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