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Brexit Latest: Rumoured 'Plan C' Could Fire Up Sterling (GBP)

Brexit Latest: Rumoured 'Plan C' Could Fire Up Sterling (GBP)

2019-01-29 12:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
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Sterling Price, Chart and News; Brexit Latest:

  • Media reports of a new way forward.
  • Sterling treads water ahead of Brexit discussion in Parliament this evening.

See how our Q1 2019 Trading Forecast for GBP can help you when trading.

Learn from our Mistakes!!!- Here are some of the top lessons DailyFX analysts suffered, absorbed and learned from personal experience in 2018 – We won’t be making them again!!

New Brexit Plan May Unlock Parliamentary Impasse

Ahead of tonight’s Brexit discussions in Parliament, media sources are suggesting that MPs across the divide may unite behind a new way forward, Plan C. The Daily Telegraph is running reports that a new, renegotiated version of the Irish backstop, if accepted by the EU would be accepted indefinitely and that the Brexit transition period would be extended for another year to help smooth trade negotiations. If the EU declined this new backstop arrangement, UK PM May would ask the EU to agree to the transition extension in return for the UK honoring its financial arrangements and EU citizen’s rights. This would enable both sides extra time to fully prepare for the UK leaving the EU and reverting to WTO trade terms.

As always, Brexit rumors should be treated with upmost caution and not used as a reason to set-up a trade as they (rumors) can be refuted immediately, blowing any position of course.

Later today, MPs will meet to vote on a series of amendments to PM May’s Plan B and this remains a potential fork in the road for Sterling. Any sense that a No Deal Brexit is being firmly pushed aside and that a softer Brexit is becoming more likely will fuel the Sterling rally further and open the way to important, technical, resistance levels in GBPUSD. GBUSD needs to break and close above the September 20 high at a fraction under 1.3300 to open the way for further gains. This would leave two Fibonacci retracement levels as potential targets, the 50% level at 1.3406 and the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3635.

Sterling (GBP) Weekly Technical Outlook: Preparing for Further Upside?

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (March 2018 – January 29, 2019)

Brexit Latest: Rumoured 'Plan C' Could Fire Up Sterling (GBP)

If you are interested in trading, or just curious about how and why market moves occur, we have recently produced a new guide – How to Start Trading: Top Tips and Guides for Beginners – to help you start your journey.

IG Client Retail sentiment data confirms a negative picture for GBPUSD. Retail are 45.8% net-long the pair, a bullish contrarian indicator. However, daily and weekly changes in retail bias and positioning – shorts are 31.9% higher than last week while net-longs are 22.9% lower over the same time frame - giving us a mixed outlook for GBPUSD.

What is your view on the longer-term outlook for GBPUSD?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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