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Crude Oil Price Eyes China Slowdown, IMF Growth Outlook Update

Crude Oil Price Eyes China Slowdown, IMF Growth Outlook Update

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Brent Oil and Chinese GDP:

  • Chinese Q4 GDP the weakest in a decade.
  • IMF Outlook will confirm fears of a global slowdown.

Q1 2019 Oil Trading Forecast.

Crude Oil Price Rangebound But Headwinds Build

The Chinese economy grew by 6.6% in 2018, down from 6.8% in 2017, its slowest rate in 28 years official data showed today. In Q4 2018 China grew by 6.4% y/y, the slowest rate of expansion in a decade, adding to fears that global growth is slowing down. Ahead, the IMF will release their latest Global Growth Outlook at Davos today at 13:00 GMT and may warn further over growth prospects in 2019. In October the IMF downgraded its global growth outlook to 3.7% and warned about the negative effects that trade wars are having on global trade.

How to Trade Oil – Crude Oil Trading Strategies

The daily chart shows Brent crude stuck in a short-term $60-$65/bbl. range which corresponds with the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. Support is provided by the 20- and 50-day moving averages which are looking to cross-over and provide a mildly bullish impulse. The December 7 high around $63.80/bbl. is the first update target before the 50% Fibonacci level. The RSI indicator is showing oil at its highest level since October 9 and nearing overbought territory. Market moves may be limited with US markets closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

Crude Oil Price Braced by Supply Cuts and Fresh Chines Stimulus

Brent Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (April - January 21, 2019)

Crude Oil Price Eyes China Slowdown, IMF Growth Outlook Update

WTI vs Brent – Top 5 Differences Between WTI and Brent Crude Oil

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.