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EURUSD Price May Fall Further as Inflation Remains Low

EURUSD Price May Fall Further as Inflation Remains Low

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist
What's on this page
  • EURUSD could test 1.1300 in the short-term.
  • Charts and sentiment remain bearish.

Q1 2019 Trading Forecasts including USD and EUR.

EURUSD Remains Structurally Weak

Euro-Zone headline inflation (y/y) is expected to fall to 1.6% from 1.9%in December, matching earlier expectations, while the core rate is expected unchanged at 1.0%, with lower energy costs keeping price pressures subdued. ECB President Mario Draghi recently said that growth across the single-block remained weak, adding that ‘a significant amount of monetary policy stimulus is still needed to support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term.'

A look at the EURUSD daily chart confirms this negative backdrop for the single-currency, with three lower highs/lower lows printed. The pair have also just slipped below both the 20-and 50-day moving average – a negative sign – and trade at levels last seen on January 4. Support below starts at 1.1345 but there is little in the way of a re-test of 1.1300. Below here, the recent 19-month low at 1.1215 comes into play before 1.1187, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2017 – February 2018 move.

EURUSD Price Latest: Heading Lower on Weak German Growth Data

EURUSD Price Outlook: Unable to Make a Decisive Break Higher

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – January 17, 2019)

IG Client Sentiment Data shows investors are currently 60.4% net-long, a bearish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional shifts give us a stronger bearish trading outlook.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.com or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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