Sterling (GBP) Technical Outlook: GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPNZD
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GBPUSD, EURGBP and GBPNZD Technical Analysis
We have recently released our Q1 2019 Trading Forecasts for a wide range of Currencies and Commodities, including GBPUSD along with our latest fundamental and medium-term term technical outlook.
GBPUSD Stuck in a Rut
GBPUSD will likely trade in a tight range ahead of the Brexit vote later on this evening, although false breaks either way should not be discounted. The pair currently trade around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2894 with recent price action positive and indicating a further move higher. The 20- and 50-day moving averages are crossing and pointing higher, while the 200-day moving average is just below 1.3000 and easily within reach. GBPUSD estimates for various Brexit outcomes are roughly 1.1500 (No Deal/Labour government) to 1.3500+ (vote passes/soft Brexit).
IG Client Sentiment Data show retail traders are 53.2% net0long the pair, a mildly bearish contrarian set-up. However, daily and weekly changes suggest a mixed GBPUSD trading bias.
GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (March 2018 – January 15, 2019)
EURGBP the Brexit Barometer
EURGBP is under downward pressure on a combination of a slightly better bid British Pound and a slightly weaker Euro. The next level of EURGBP support – the 200-day moving average – kicks-in at 0.8884 before the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8860. Below here 0.8803, then 0.8725 and 0.8655. To the upside, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8916 before a cluster of moving averages and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement between 0.8953 and 0.8986.
EURGBP Daily Price Chart (March 2018 – January 15, 2019)
GBPNZD Stuck Between Two Levels
GBPNZD has been trading between two Fibonacci retracement levels (minus spikes) for the last month and will likely stay there pre-vote. The pair have made an attempt to break higher before a sharp sell-of. The pair are trying to build a base and move higher and now trade at the top of the 20- and 50-day cloud which crossed over and turned positive on January 6. On the downside 23.6% retracement at 1.8683 and on the upside 38.2% retracement at 1.9026.
GBPNZD Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – January 15, 2019)
--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst
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