Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Select

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar Events

0

Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events

H

High

M

Medium

L

Low
More View More
Sterling (GBP) Technical Outlook: GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPNZD

Sterling (GBP) Technical Outlook: GBPUSD, EURGBP, GBPNZD

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist

Share:

What's on this page

GBPUSD, EURGBP and GBPNZD Technical Analysis

  • GBPUSD remains upbeat ahead of the vote.
  • EURGBP the Brexit barometer.
  • GBPNZD may offer opportunity.

We have recently released our Q1 2019 Trading Forecasts for a wide range of Currencies and Commodities, including GBPUSD along with our latest fundamental and medium-term term technical outlook.

GBPUSD Stuck in a Rut

GBPUSD will likely trade in a tight range ahead of the Brexit vote later on this evening, although false breaks either way should not be discounted. The pair currently trade around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2894 with recent price action positive and indicating a further move higher. The 20- and 50-day moving averages are crossing and pointing higher, while the 200-day moving average is just below 1.3000 and easily within reach. GBPUSD estimates for various Brexit outcomes are roughly 1.1500 (No Deal/Labour government) to 1.3500+ (vote passes/soft Brexit).

IG Client Sentiment Data show retail traders are 53.2% net0long the pair, a mildly bearish contrarian set-up. However, daily and weekly changes suggest a mixed GBPUSD trading bias.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (March 2018 – January 15, 2019)

Sterling (GBP) Week Ahead: Beware of False Brexit Break-Outs.

EURGBP the Brexit Barometer

EURGBP is under downward pressure on a combination of a slightly better bid British Pound and a slightly weaker Euro. The next level of EURGBP support – the 200-day moving average – kicks-in at 0.8884 before the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8860. Below here 0.8803, then 0.8725 and 0.8655. To the upside, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8916 before a cluster of moving averages and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement between 0.8953 and 0.8986.

EURGBP Daily Price Chart (March 2018 – January 15, 2019)

GBPNZD Stuck Between Two Levels

GBPNZD has been trading between two Fibonacci retracement levels (minus spikes) for the last month and will likely stay there pre-vote. The pair have made an attempt to break higher before a sharp sell-of. The pair are trying to build a base and move higher and now trade at the top of the 20- and 50-day cloud which crossed over and turned positive on January 6. On the downside 23.6% retracement at 1.8683 and on the upside 38.2% retracement at 1.9026.

GBPNZD Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – January 15, 2019)

DailyFX has a vast amount of resources to help traders make more informed decisions. These include a fully updated Economic Calendar, and a raft of constantly updated Educational and Trading Guides

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

To contact Nick, email him at nicholas.cawley@ig.com

Follow Nick on Twitter @nickcawley1

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES