PM May Set for Brexit Vote Defeat, Germany Avoids Technical Recession - US Market Open

2019-01-15 13:40:00

MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GBP VOLATILITY EXPECTED ON BREXIT VOTE

GBP: All eyes on the meaningful vote for GBP traders. Option markets are suggesting an implied move of roughly 1% in GBPUSD. As it stands, PM May looks set for a sizeable defeat with many suggesting that the Prime Minister could lose by at least 100+ votes. GBPUSD continued to pull back from its best levels after press reports suggested that Theresa May would continue with her deal, regardless of how much she is defeated by. Headline risk remains abundant.

Brexit Schedule

1245: Brexit debate to begin

1900: Brexit debate to end

2000-2100: Meaningful vote to take place

All times GMT

Results to follow

EUR: The Euro pulled back from 1.15 following another soft German data point. GDP in 2018 fell to a 5yr low of 1.5%, consequently, raising fears of a pronounced slowdown in the core of the Eurozone. However, what would provide a slight bit of comfort, is that Germany may have potentially avoided dipping into a technical recession with the German Stats Office stating that the economy posted a small increase in Q4.

Crude Oil: Brent crude has once again reclaimed the $60/bbl, rising over 1%, after the prior day’s drop. However, the price recovery may be somewhat short-lived, given that the economic outlook remains weak. Alongside this, while OPEC-led cuts provide an undercurrent of support, demand for OPEC crude is expected to be lower than the estimated output.