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EURUSD Price Outlook: Unable to Make a Decisive Break Higher

EURUSD Price Outlook: Unable to Make a Decisive Break Higher

2019-01-11 12:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist

EURUSD News, Prices and Chart

  • EURUSD currently capped by the 200-day moving average.
  • Euro needs positive data prints and so far, they are lacking.

Q1 2019 Trading Forecasts including USD and EUR.

EURUSD Rally in Need of Fresh Stimulus

The recent EURUSD rally off the January 2 low of 1.1300 has stalled around the 200-day moving average – currently just below 1.1550 – despite a weaker US dollar. In addition, the RSI indicator has just turned lower from a multi-month high, weighing on the pair. ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny’s recent comments sum up the state of the Eurozone economy and may keep the Euro depressed. Nowotny said that growth rates ‘will be slower but stay in positive territory’, hardly a ringing endorsement of the state of the Eurozone.

Recent German data also paints a negative picture going forward with factory orders -4.3% y/y in November while industrial production took an even bigger hit falling by -4.7% compared to +0.5% in the prior month.

EURUSD Price Outlook: Unable to Make a Decisive Break Higher

EURUSD currently trades around 1.1530 and needs to close above the 200-day moving average before it can try to break the October 16 high at 1.1622 and the September 24 high at 1.1820. Downside protection is seen between 1.1500 and the 20-day moving average at 1.1425.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – January 11, 2019)

EURUSD Price Outlook: Unable to Make a Decisive Break Higher

IG Client Sentiment Datashows investors are currently 52.2% net-long, a bullish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional shifts give us a mixed trading outlook.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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