News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar has once again responded to weekly technical resistance and leaves the bulls vulnerable while below 7866. Get your $AUD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/72ORZ3wZwx https://t.co/ktLFGNPZd0
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.50% Silver: 0.10% Oil - US Crude: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/6m6mlA9J0I
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 91.05%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 69.35%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/0md6tHfJ37
  • Banxico: - Inflation shows require orderly adjustment in prices - Mid-Long term CPI expectations above 3% - Expects CPI to converge to target in 2Q 2022
  • Banxico: - Rate decision was unanimous - There are major challenges for monetary policy, citing highly uncertain economic environment - Future decisions depend on factors affecting CPI - Inflation has risen more than expected - Inflation risk tilted to the upside $MXN
  • Mexican #Peso maintaining intraday gains following #Banxico rate decision with $USDMXN hanging at session lows https://t.co/aMd2HlpHwt
  • 🇲🇽 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 4% Expected: 4% Previous: 4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.98% US 500: 0.81% Germany 30: 0.02% France 40: -0.01% FTSE 100: -0.04% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/THzITT5Kgr
  • Australian #Dollar Forecast: #Aussie Bulls Halted– $AUDUSD Range Break Imminent- https://t.co/JdSYBbD1Ur https://t.co/BeSbuNyork
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Interest Rate Decision due at 18:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 4% Previous: 4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
USD/BRL May Jump on Brazilian CPI Data - Policy Reform in Focus

USD/BRL May Jump on Brazilian CPI Data - Policy Reform in Focus

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

TALKING POINTS – USD/BRL, BRAZILIAN REAL, CPI, BOLSONARO

  • USD/BRL potentially to rise on weak CPI data
  • Brazil data has been weak for several months
  • New government’s economic reforms in focus

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

USD/BRL may dip upon the release of Brazil’s CPI data that will likely fall short of expectations. In December, the year-on-year inflation came in at 4.05, falling short of the 4.17 forecast, and underperforming the previous release at 4.56. Retail sales have also been taking a hit for the past few months with broader economic data showing weakness.

USD/BRL since January 25 to the time of writing has risen almost 20 percent, with the peak in September when the pair had risen over 30 percent. However, more recently the pair have formed what appears to be a long-term bearish reversal pattern that looks like it is on the edge of confirmation.

USD/BRL – Daily Chart

USD/BRL - Daily Chart

Follow me on Twitter for more updates on the Brazilian Real on USD/BRL trading strategies!

However, despite disappointing economic data, consumer confidence has been steadily rising. This in large part has to do with the politics in Brazil. Since June, it has increased 16 percent, reflecting hope that President Jair Bolsonaro will be able to deliver on his economic reforms that may make the Brazilian Real the best performing emerging market currency in 2019.

One of the major policy reforms includes deflating the bloated pension system that is crippling Brazil’s economy. Markets cheered Bolsonaro during the perilous election last October, and have been betting on him being able to deliver the necessary reforms to stabilize Brazil’s economy. If Bolsonaro wants to keep investors cheering for him, re-designing the pension system is a necessary policy measure he must deliver.

USD/BRL TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES