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Political Analysis and Talking Points:

  • Indian General Election
  • South African General Election
  • Australian Federal Election
  • Canadian Federal Election

Global Elections 2019

Indian General Election (May)

Indian general elections are scheduled to take place by May. Back in 2014, the BJP (alliance NDA) led by Narendra Modi won a parliamentary majority for the first time since 1991 with 282 seats (272 needed for a majority), sparking a rally in INR and Indian Equities (Sensex & Nifty). However, heading into the 2019 general election, the outlook has become increasingly uncertain after the Ruling BJP Party lost three key states (Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and the crucial state of Madhya Pradesh) to opposition rivals, suggesting that voters have not been entirely convinced by PM Modi. Consequently, this has been reflected in opinion polling suggesting a narrowing lead for PM Modi, raising the risk of a coalition government. Biggest threat to Modi is Congress President Rahul Gandhi who heads the INC party (alliance UPA).

Opinion Polling

Date

Polling Agency

NDA

UPA

Others

Majority

Dec 2018

India TV - CNX

281

124

138

9

Nov 2018

ABP News - Voter

261

119

163

Hung

Oct 2018

ABP News - CSDS

276

112

155

4

Aug 2018

India Today

255

248

46

Hung

May 2018

ABP News CSDS

274

164

105

2

Jan 2018

Republic – C Voter

335

89

119

63

Jan 2018

India Today

309

102

132

37

Jan 2018

ABP News CSDS

301

127

115

29

South African General Election (May)

The South African general election will likely be scheduled for May (previous election held on May 7th 2014). In recent years, the ANC party has seen a dent on its reputation following the corrupted Jacob Zuma, who resigned in February 2018 after he was ineligible for a third term. However, since then, Zuma’s successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, has sparked a bounce back in support for the ANC. While South Africa briefly experienced a technical recession, it is unlikely to have significant ramifications for the election and as such it is very much unlikely that President Ramaphosa will lose his majority (201 seats needed for majority, ANC hold 249 seats). Best case scenario for the South African Rand will be a strong ANC election outcome and good policy reform.

Opinion Polling

Date

Polling Agency

ANC

DA

EFF

Others

Majority

Dec 2018

IRR

56

18

11

14

38

Sep 2018

Afrobarometer

48

11

11

3

37

Sep 2018

IRR

52

23

13

10

29

June 2018

Ipsos

60

13

7

2

47

Australian Federal Elections (May at earliest for Simultaneous election)

The next election must be held by May 2019 for half of the State Senators and on or before November 2019 for House of Representatives and Territory Senators. Despite relatively robust economic growth and unemployment tracking at 6yr lows, the main opposition (Labour) to the ruling Liberal and National coalition is set to win the 2019 by a landslide. Largely this had been due to the backbench revolt which saw former PM Malcom Turnbull ousted in August 2018, whereby the former PM had been quickly replaced by Scott Morrison, which in in turn had angered voters. Given that many expect PM Morrison to suffer a sizeable loss, the PM could potentially call a dual election for the first time since 1972 in order to gain more time to shore up support, however, this is seen a relatively unlikely. Currently, the Liberal/National coalition hold 74 seats (76 seats needed for a majority), while Labour hold 69 seats.

Opinion Polling

Key Global Elections to Watch Out For in 2019

Source: Ipsos, Essential and Newspoll voting intentions.

Canadian Federal Elections (October)

Federal elections in Canada will take on October 21st. Since Justin Trudeau’s historic win in 2015, both Trudeau and the Liberal party have seen their approval rating fall, while data from Abacus noted that 58% would like to see a different party take charge in Ottawa. However, this is not that significant given that Canada use a first past-the-post voting system. As a reminder, Justin Trudeau had won the 2015 election with 39.5% of the vote. That said, the ruling Liberal party has been losing its grip on power with Conservatives winning Ontario elections, which had been held by Liberals for 15yrs. That said, while approval ratings may have fallen and oppositions beginning to gain a foothold. Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party remain ahead in opinion polling.

Key Global Elections to Watch Out For in 2019

Source: CBC

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX