Gold Price: Rally Stalls Ahead of US Jobs Report, Fed Speak
What's on this page
Gold, NFPs and Federal Reserve Speakers:
- US NFPs may surprise to the upside.
- Fed Chairs, past and present, talk at AEA roundtable.
Gold Waiting for the Next US Dollar Move
Gold is stuck in a holding pattern as the market awaits the latest US Labour Report (NFPs) and commentary from Fed chair Powell and two of his predecessors. Yesterday’s ADP employment data jumped – 271k against expectations of 180k – and while not a direct correlation to US NFPs, a beat to the upside today – expectations of +180k – cannot be ruled out. Of equal importance in today’s Labour Report, the average hourly earnings figure is expected to tick up to 0.3% m/m in December from a prior 0.2%. Any upside beat of these two sets of figures will boost a currently flagging US dollar, putting downward pressure on gold.
Later in the session, Fed chair Jerome Powell will attend a roundtable event at the American Economic Association (AEA), along with predecessors Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen. The markets will be looking for Powell’s – and his predecessors - latest thoughts on the state of the US economy, especially after interest rate hikes expectations were pared back at the December Fed meeting.
Gold touched a fresh six-month high today around $1,297/oz. in Asian trade before slipping lower as Europe came in. The precious metal has rallied just over $80/oz. in the last five weeks, pushing the precious metal into overbought territory, using the RSI indicator. To the upside $1,310/oz. ahead of 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1,308/oz. while to the downside 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1,727/oz. and the 20-day moving average at $1,263/oz.
Gold Daily Price Chart (April 2018 – January 4, 2019)
Retail traders are 73.3% net-long US Crude according to the latest IC Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. However, recent changes in daily and weekly positions suggest that prices may soon reverse higher.
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.