News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to sway the US Dollar during the Federal Reserve’s blackout period as the central bank braces for a transitory rise in inflation. Get your weekly $USD forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/JTuP7CLlyi https://t.co/tOvqn3Gdpc
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/s5dn4ZKnku
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACyvdZ https://t.co/6VjW5FEiQW
  • Global stocks bounce back from recent pullback as key resistance levels lie ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/wXSWo1JygD https://t.co/vWVaSEQTXT
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/9kfBu04auM
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5ddzFV https://t.co/8GJ6OQYgnW
  • Bitcoin (BTC) started the day on the front foot on the Twitter news before the latest China crypto ban hammered the market lower. Get your weekly crypto forecast from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/ZKHGXeVhsR https://t.co/QSltMQml6N
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/DSp7f3YuAx
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/HNqHcbL6vk
  • The US Dollar continues to push higher against ASEAN currencies after the FOMC rate decision. This leaves the USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR outlook mostly tilted higher. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zn56iTFBxM https://t.co/FbepD4RaFg
Australian Dollar Down As China's Manufactruing PMI Stumbles

Australian Dollar Down As China's Manufactruing PMI Stumbles

David Cottle, Analyst

Australian Dollar, China Manufacturing PMI Talking Points:

  • The Australian Dollar slid a little on news that China’s manufacturing sector contracted in December
  • The official Purchasing Managers Index came in below 50 for the first time since the middle of 2016
  • Trade détente with the US is becoming pressing for the Chinese economy

First-quarter technical and fundamental forecasts from the DailyFX analysts are out now. What will the New Year bring?

The Australian Dollar slipped a little Monday as China’s manufacturing sector registered a shock contraction.

The official Purchasing Managers Index slipped to 49.4 in December, from 50.0 the month before. In the logic of PMIs any reading below 50 signifies a contraction for the sector in question. The latest numbers mark the first sub-50 print since mid-2016. These numbers will underscore the prognosis that China’s economy has slowed markedly into year-end. They also reveal how ill Beijing can afford a protracted trade dispute with Washington.

Admittedly the Chinese service sector did better, registering a PMI of 53.8. That was well above the 53.2 expected. The composite level was 52.6, just below November’s 52.8.

Still, that manufacturing miss will weigh on risk appetite.

The Australian Dollar can act as the foreign exchange markets’ favorite liquid Chine-economy bet thanks to Australia’s vast raw material exports to the world’s second-largest national economy. It seems to have done so in response to the data although falls were not large.

New Year Slip. Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, 5-Minute Chart

Volume is likely to have been severely constrained by the year-end break and investors’ true feelings about this number may not find expression for a couple of days.

Downtrend Back In Play. Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, Daily Chart

On its broader, daily chart, AUD/USD remains under the duress which has ruled for much of this year. The market may well be rethinking the likely path of US interest rates- and it’s been their rise which has damaged the Aussie so egregiously in the past twelve months.

However, Australian rate-futures contracts now price modest cuts in the record-low 1.50% Official Cash Rate over the coming eighteen months This is despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s oft-expressed opinion that the next move, when it comes, will be a rise. Markets clearly don’t concur and that could be a big problem for Aussie Dollar bulls as 2019 gets under way.

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES