We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -2.2% Previous: -0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 GDP Growth Rate YoY Final due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -2.3% Previous: 0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Crude oil sold-off Friday on news that China is looking to introduce stringent new security laws in Hong Kong, damaging global risk appetite. Get your #oil technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/5DuW1rMOmX #OOTT https://t.co/EPgg3c0S54
  • 🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final Actual: 90.2 Expected: 90.5 Previous: 95.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • 🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final Actual: 84.7 Expected: 83.8 Previous: 91.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 90.5 Previous: 95.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 83.8 Previous: 91.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-05-25
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.11%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 78.77%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/iDDH4lPCbr
  • New Zealand: PM Ardern announces limit for social gatherings will increase to 100 people effective May 29 and will consider moving to Alert Level 1 no later than June 22.
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.13% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.11% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.08% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.08% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/keYyC5HU2W
Top Trade Idea 2019: Commodities to Base in 2019 – Looking for a low in Gold, Crude Oil

Top Trade Idea 2019: Commodities to Base in 2019 – Looking for a low in Gold, Crude Oil

2018-12-24 09:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:

Gold Weekly Price Chart (XAU/USD)

Top Trade Idea 2019: Commodities to Base in 2019 – Looking for a low in Gold, Crude Oil

Data Source: TradingView. Prepared by Michael Boutros

Heading into the start of 2018 our ‘bottom line’ for Gold noted that, “the immediate risk heading into next year is for a decline to ultimately offer more favorable long-opportunities.” Price registered a low at 1160 this year with price reversing off multi-year pitchfork support of the formation extending off the 2013/2015 lows. Gold has continued to trade within the confines of this near-term descending formation off the 2017/2018 highs and heading into next year, we’re looking for a low while above the 2018 low-week close at 1184. Initial resistance targets are eyed at the highlighted confluence region around the 52-week moving average at 1270 backed by 1287. Ultimately a breach above the yearly open at 1302 would be needed to put the broader long-bias back in play. Broader bullish invalidation rests at 1171. Bottom line: look for a low above parallel support next year with a breach of the descending pitchfork needed to clear the way for a larger advance in gold.

Crude Oil Weekly Price Chart (WTI)

Top Trade Idea 2019: Commodities to Base in 2019 – Looking for a low in Gold, Crude Oil

Data Source: TradingView. Prepared by Michael Boutros

Crude oil plummeted through multi-year uptrend support in October with prices down more than 35% off the highs heading into the close of the year. The risk remains for a deeper drawdown here but we’re looking for possible exhaustion heading into key confluence support at 45- this region is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the entire 2016 advance and converges on the median-line of the 2015 / 2016 ascending pitchfork formation into the start of the year. IF prices are going to stabilize, that would be the level to look for. Key resistance stands at the 2018 yearly open at 60.06 and a breach above this region is needed to alleviate further downside pressure in WTI. Bottom line: look for price exhaustion in the first half of 2018 at / ahead of the 45-handle.

To see all the of the analysts Top Trade Ideas for 2019 and Top Lessons from 2018, download the guides on the DailyFX Trading Guides Page.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.