News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • 'Thank you chair Powell, now back to the real business - alts are up and running again'....#cardano #solana #ethereum @DailyFXTeam
  • Fed's Powell: - Fed is evaluating whether or not to launch a central bank digital currency - Fed has not made a decision on a CBDC yet
  • #Powell: Fed's tapering will be gradual $SPX $USD $XAUUSD
  • Fed's Powell: - Rate liftoff is unlikely to occur before the end of the taper -Tapering will be gradual, and the Fed can accelerate or decelerate the taper if required
  • Fed's Powell: - I want to finish the taper before considering balance sheet reductions - The time has not yet come to discuss the Fed's balance sheet
  • Fed's Powell: - Evergrande situation appears to be unique to China - The number of US corporate defaults is very low
  • Missed today's FOMC? Get your live coverage from @CVecchioFX and read up your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • $USD set a fresh Sept. high during the presser 93.73 is the 2021 high, next res level on my chart $DXY
  • Fed's Powell: - It is critical that the debt ceiling be lifted in a timely manner - No one should assume the Fed can fully protect the markets or the economy in the event of a default
  • At least they are willing to acknowledge that there is diminishing benefit to additional stimulus. Not outright admission of the detriments that can arise though (like a bubble born of moral hazard) which does us a disservice
EUR/USD Sensitive to Holiday Illiquidity, Eyes Fed and ECB

EUR/USD Sensitive to Holiday Illiquidity, Eyes Fed and ECB

Megha Torpunuri,


  • EUR/USD rallies on Italian budget détente but prices may turn lower
  • Diverging monetary policy between Fed and ECB could point to losses
  • Long-term market themes and upcoming inflation data in focus

The Euro has recently gained against the greenback, paring losses sustained for most of this year. However, whether EUR/USD extends its upside momentum or succumbs to long-term interest rate differentials is yet to be seen. Here’s what some of the DailyFX analysts think:


EUR/USD’s failed attempt to test the November-high of 1.1500 and recent hawkish forward guidance from the Federal Reserve could indicate near-term bearish momentum, according to Currency Analyst David Song. Lingering interest rate differentials fuelled by the European Central Bank’s commitment to its zero interest rate policy, combined with long-term bearish formations in the Relative Strength Index, could also point towards losses for the currency pair. Near-term support for the Euro comes in near 1.1220 (78.6% retracement), while 1.1510 (38.2% expansion) could keep the unit capped into 2019.

EUR/USD Chart (Daily)

EUR/USD Sensitive to Holiday Illiquidity, Eyes Fed and ECB


On the other hand, the currency pair could be poised for a rally on key fundamental themes, according to Currency Strategist James Stanley. A breakthrough in the Italian budget saga and the ECB’s recent announcement that bond buying in its quantitative easing program would end could spur a rally for EUR/USD. Euro bulls should look for a break above the 1.1500 level following fresh December highs, with further evidence of higher-low support.

EUR/USD Chart (8-hour)

EUR/USD Sensitive to Holiday Illiquidity, Eyes Fed and ECB

Looking ahead, low liquidity due to the holiday season and partial US government shutdown means that EUR/USD could be susceptible to volatile fundamental themes. Traders should keep a close eye on developments on long-term market issues, especially ongoing US-China trade talks, equities’ rout, and Brexit negotiations with the EU. In addition, the currency pair also faces the release of December’s US consumer confidence data and preliminary German inflation figures.


--- Written by Megha Torpunuri, DailyFX Research Team

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.