We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/1oygcFMFNs https://t.co/CS4TCNYsQA
  • The anti-risk Japanese Yen will likely remain glued to market mood during the third quarter, what are some fundamental sources of volatility? Download our JPY trading guide to find out: https://t.co/LhFkbyDCCw https://t.co/dA1gW4cVKt
  • A macro forex trading guide exploring the US-Canada relationship and how to trade the Canadian Dollar through the prism of the Core-Perimeter model. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri and @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/dF51UMcGFC https://t.co/dK1zPozjtT
  • Sterling’s volatility is expected to rise in Q3 as prickly EU/UK trade talks continue against a bleak looking economic backdrop. See our Q3 GDP guide: https://t.co/QzLErDHVhc https://t.co/nxBke8euTF
  • The Core-Perimeter trading model helps traders understand interactions between global economies, helping to trade the assets embedded in these relationships. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/dKRAo00lfA https://t.co/5JzIjUDDx6
  • #CrudeOil price action could consolidate into a broad trading range following a historic Q2 as barriers of technical confluence stand to contain the commodity’s direction. Download our oil #trading guide for the full report: https://t.co/DcjPcVpX5x https://t.co/EJlDquZ9WR
  • It’s unlikely that the #ECB on its own will continue to be able to prevent the Euro from weakening if EU governments continue to argue about policy. Download our #EUR trading guide to find out more: https://t.co/Kjp34DoEzE https://t.co/gtKQa9zXX5
  • The #USD spent the bulk of Q2 in a range after a climactic Q1; and with a series of risk themes continuing to push, combined with an election in November, the door appears open for more vol in USD. Download our USD trading guide here: https://t.co/2Wo7EcwAht https://t.co/BA5dWk4wTt
  • $USD hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/OTTEmg76W8
  • The immediate focus is on a break of this multi-week consolidation formation in the Australian Dollar with the broader rally vulnerable while below 7042. Get your AUD technical analysis here: https://t.co/iEYos1ioBc https://t.co/kuzB3Eqps0
Riksbank Likely to Delay Rate Hike as Political Gridlock Continues

Riksbank Likely to Delay Rate Hike as Political Gridlock Continues

2018-12-19 01:30:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
Share:

TALKING POINTS – USD/SEK, RIKSBANK, RATE HIKE, POLITICAL GRIDLOCK

  • The Riksbank will likely raise rates for the first time in seven years in February
  • Rate hike postponement is likely due to slowing economy and political gridlock
  • USD/SEK may fall in short term but long term outlook indicates upward trend

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

The Riksbank’s upcoming policy meeting will likely disappoint – but not surprise – Krona bulls who are anxiously waiting for a hike after seven years of expansionary policy. Interest rates have remained at -0.50 percent since 2016, and the central bank has stated it will raise rates either this week or in February. Markets are not pricing in a rate hike for this year given the increasing political and economic complications.

Growth in Sweden has been slowing down recently and trade wars have certainly weighed heavily on the export-driven economy. Inflationary pressure has been cooling and other indicators have presented a “rather gloomy” outlook – as Riksbank official Martin Floden stated – for the Swedish economy going forward.

This comes on top of unprecedented political gridlock that has left Sweden without a formal government since September 9. Two candidates for prime minister have been voted down so far and several have failed to form a viable coalition. The country is getting closer to a snap election, leading to a possible rise in the nationalist Sweden Democrats. Their popularity reflects a broader trend toward nationalism in Europe.

The circumstances outlined above have weighed down on the Krona, with USD/SEK trending 15 percent higher since the start of February. The pair has almost consistently traded in the 9.0087-8.9615 range since late May, but more recently has tested a possible support at 8.7527. The pair is not likely to significantly deviate from its current trend but may see more substantial gains into 2019.

However, in the short term, USD/SEK may fall as Sweden’s government implements a potential inflation-boosting budget plan from the center-right coalition. This would come against the backdrop of a highly probable rate hike in February. However, if the forecasts for global growth in 2019 hold true, the potential economic turmoil may drive traders away from the Krona and to the US Dollar amid broader risk aversion.

USD/SEK – Daily Chart

USD/SEK - Daily Chart

USD/SEK TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.