News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB Forum on Central Banking due at 08:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-28
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/eEZBN4XkZH
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/rJznrXkcYz https://t.co/IWJpr6mWP0
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/NIdzQkSA9f
  • 🇫🇷 Consumer Confidence (SEP) Actual: 102 Expected: 100 Previous: 99 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-28
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/stdtgSQU9M
  • Heads Up:🇫🇷 Consumer Confidence (SEP) due at 06:45 GMT (15min) Expected: 100 Previous: 99 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-28
  • 🇩🇪 GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT) Actual: 0.3 Expected: -1.6 Previous: -1.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-28
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT) due at 06:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -1.6 Previous: -1.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-28
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/7G6h7JPMeq
EURUSD Price Shrugs Off Weak German IFO Data, Risks Lie Ahead

EURUSD Price Shrugs Off Weak German IFO Data, Risks Lie Ahead

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Euro and German IFO data:

  • German Ifo business climate indicator hits a 27-month low.
  • EURUSD retail net-short positions soar.

Q4 Trading Forecasts including USD and EUR.

EURUSD Ignores Weak German Business Survey

The German economy faces a ‘lean festive season’ according to Clemens Fuest, President of the Ifo Institute with manufacturers’ business expectations turning negative for the first time since May 2016. This recent data adds further credence to ECB President Mario Draghi’s latest commentary that the EU economic slowdown is ‘not just down to one-offs’, all at a time when the ECB is finishing its quantitative easing program. The Ifo release follows on from last Friday’s weak German and Eurozone PMI readings which all fell from last month and missed market expectations.

German Ifo Data (December 18, 2018)

EURUSD Price Shrugs Off Weak German IFO Data, Risks Lie Ahead

Eurozone and German Preliminary December PMIs (December 14, 2018)

EURUSD Price Shrugs Off Weak German IFO Data, Risks Lie Ahead

EURUSD Weekly Technical Forecast: Euro Shorts in Charge of Triangle-Break.

EURUSD shrugged of the latest data, aided in part by a weaker US dollar, but doubts persist that the latest uptick is sustainable based on Eurozone data alone. With the ECB ending bond purchases at the end of this month, monetary conditions will tighten marginally at a time when inflation remains below target and growth continues to falter. Add into the mix the latest Italian and French debt-to-GDP discussions and the ongoing Brexit negotiations, and the Euro may struggle to push further ahead, based on its own valuation.

EURUSD Vulnerable as EU Commission Weighs Italy Penalty

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (April - December 18, 2018)

EURUSD Price Shrugs Off Weak German IFO Data, Risks Lie Ahead

IG Client Sentiment Datashow that investors are currently 49.1% net-long EURUSD. Net-longs have decreased sharply since yesterday by 17.2% while net-shorts have increased by 50.1% since Monday.The combination of current sentiment and recent changes give us a strong EURUSD bullish contrarian bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES