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GBP/USD Slumps as Brexit Vote Canceled

GBP/USD Slumps as Brexit Vote Canceled

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Sterling, Brexit and US dollar:

  • Brexit vote called off?
  • EU Commission says best and only deal on the table.

Q4 Trading Forecasts including USD and GBP.

UPDATE – Brexit Vote Canceled

UK PM Theresa May has cancelled Tuesday’s Withdrawal Bill in the House of Commons and has just told the House that she is going back to Brussels to try and renegotiate the contentious Irish backstop agreement. No timetable has yet been given and for either the meeting – likely this week – or when the Withdrawal Bill will be voted on. PM May also admitted that she faced losing the vote if it had gone ahead on Tuesday and appealed to both sides of the House to support her in her new discussions.

GBP/USD Price Chart: 1-Minute Timeframe (December 10, 2018 Intraday)

Sterling, already weak from the rumors swirling this morning, has taken another, sharp leg lower and broken below 1.2600 and the June 2017 low at 1.2589. Below here, horizontal support levels at 1.2109, followed by 1.19833 and 1.1800. Sterling looks weak and is expected to go lower as Brexit confusion continues, pacing for its worst single-day loss since the October 6, 2016 flash crash.

ORIGINAL - Sterling Slides to a New 18-Month Low on Brexit Vote Rumors

The UK Parliamentary Brexit agreement vote, scheduled for Tuesday, is said to have been postponed according to multiple sources, and Sterling is believing it so far. GBPUSD has fallen to a new 18-month low of 1.2651 while EURGBP has jumped to a three-month high of 0.9025 in choppy trading.

While talk swirled around this morning about a possible vote cancellation, it now looks increasingly likely and the market does not like it. UK PM May’s position now becomes increasingly untenable and all possibilities are now open. In addition, the EU Commission recently said that the current Brexit vote on the table is the best and only one and would not be changed. PM May’s unpopular deal was expected to be rejected by a heavy majority, leaving the UK trapped with either a no deal or no Brexit as we stand.

Sterling Directionless – Will Meaningful Brexit Vote Take Place.

Brexit Impact on Sterling (GBP).

GBP/USD Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (March to December 2018)

Retail traders are 69.8% net-long GBPUSD, according to the latest IC Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. However, recent changes in daily and weekly positions currently give us a mixed trading bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on GBPUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.com or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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