Never miss a story from Martin Essex

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Martin Essex

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

USD price, news and analysis:

  • The USD price is weakening further: down Monday on news of a US-China trade war ceasefire, down Tuesday on misgivings that a long-term deal can be agreed.
  • That may be because the US Treasury yield curve has flattened and partly inverted, seen by some as a harbinger of recession.

USD Price Still Under Downward Pressure

The USD price is easing again Tuesday as doubts emerge that a long-term US-China trade war deal can be reached after slipping back Monday on news of a temporary truce. US President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping have decided to hold off from imposing new tariffs for 90 days while they negotiate an agreement.

However, concerns surfaced Tuesday about whether a long-term agreement is achievable. That might have been expected to give the US Dollar a lift given its status as a safe haven when risk aversion rises. Instead, it dropped again, implying that other forces are influencing it too.

EURUSD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (August 27 – December 4, 2018)

Latest EURUSD price chart.

Chart by IG Click on the chart for a larger image

As the chart of EURUSD above shows, the pair is extending its gains as the US Dollar weakens and from a technical perspective has broken to the upside from a triangle pattern, implying further gains are now possible.

That could be in part because the US Treasury yield curve has flattened and partly inverted.

US Yield Curve Chart

Latest US yield curve chart.


The curve is now flatter than it was both a month ago and a year ago, while the curve has inverted between two years and five years, sometimes seen as a warning of a possible recession that would lead to lower US interest rates and reduce the attractions of the Dollar.

While this seems unlikely at present, it perhaps suggests that the outlook for USD is less positive than it seemed as recently as Monday.

More to read:

A Brief History of Trade Wars | Infographic

Trade Wars and Tariffs: The Impact on Europe, EUR, GBP and Stocks

Resources to help you trade the forex markets:

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you:

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at or on Twitter @MartinSEssex